Invest @ SGX

Jardine Group - Out of Touch

2011-01-02T00:45:00.003+08:00

I have read this on Business Times:

The influence the Jardine group has exerted on the STI throughout last year has been highlighted in this column many times before, since the group's all-time highs have been instrumental in the STI posting two-year highs a few months ago.

I don't understand why Jardine group shall be selected as a component stocks of STI, since the liquidity is so low and it hardly represent the sentiment and market condition.

Look at this number:

Jardine Matheson yesterday fell US$0.62 to US$44 but this hardly dented its gain for 2010, which stood at 46 per cent. The best Jardine performer was Jardine Strategic with a rise of 57 per cent over the past 12 months, followed by Hongkong Land's 46 per cent and Cycle & Carriage's 36 per cent.

How many of your blue chip out performed these number?

U.S. Dollar Index - Not so popular but.....

2010-02-07T11:00:00.008+08:00

U.S. Dollar Index has not been a popular index to be read. In fact, many investors have no idea what it has to do with trading.

Which is absolutely wrong, I would say.

Look at the 1 year U.S. Dollar Index. The bottom of DJI on March 2009 coincides with the peak of U.S. Dollar Index.

To bring the picture in focus, we also can look closer at the intraday chart last Friday, when many have sleepless night. The bottom of DJI coincides with the peak of U.S. Dollar Index again.

So, what so great about U.S. Dollar Index? The relationship between U.S. Dollar Index with DJI, commodities and bonds etc is very close, even though not one to one.

We are located at difference time zone with US. U.S. Dollar Index is traded almost 24 hours per day and 5 days per week. This may offer a better indicator in comparison to DJI future alone.

For stock selection, I would prefer a top down approach. You may also include U.S. Dollar Index as part of your analysis.

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with

Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

GENTING: Insider Trade?

2010-02-07T09:22:00.005+08:00

This morning we wake up to read this piece of top story on the Sunday Times.

However, by looking at the Friday price movement of Genting, nobody need PhD to know that someone already got 'wind' about this. The issuance of license is on Saturday.

Here is the intraday chart of Genting on Friday afternoon, when no announcement has been made.

For the public interest, I think the authority shall look into the posibilities of insider trading.

Talk is cheap?

2010-01-12T13:16:00.002+08:00

If you trade USD/JPY pair, I think you will wondering why this morning the market so volatile, artificially.

Here, the reason:

Why You Should Not Panic On Monday?

2009-11-28T19:55:00.002+08:00

Dollar index almost fully recover after Asia and Europe went through the panic mode. Just stay cool. The tsunami will be over very soon.

Dubai Fallout - SGX Chapter

2009-11-28T12:54:00.002+08:00

Shorting may be not your cup of tea but making an informed decision is a must for the survival of a trader like me. After reading most openly available source of information, I have compiled a list of company listed on SGX market for own reference, which I willing to share with you.

1. City Developments, CDL
Partnership in development of South Beach site near Suntec

2. DBS
With branch in Dubai since 2006. One of the syndicate financing South Beach project.

3. UOB
One of the syndicate financing South Beach project.

4. OCBC
One of the syndicate financing South Beach project.

5. SMRT
Contact to operate and maintain a monorail line

6. Ascott Group
Own a service residence, Somerset Jadaf at Dubai

7. Capitaland
Joint Venture with Mubadala for a project named Arzanah, a US$6 billion development on Abu Dhabi island. Plan Abu Dhabi 2030.

More to be find out.

What to do with my Capitamalls Asia IPO share?

2009-11-25T07:57:00.003+08:00

Most of the people on the street suddenly realize that they have a bite of the IPO with bigger then expected allocation.

With the rumours saying that the grey market price can fetch up to $2.80, couple with the bullish valuation from DMG, this shall be a candidate for quick profit. However, the story does not end here. The confusion is: If the general public can get high allocations with high successful ratio, who will want to pay $2.80 for same thing selling at $2.12?

The question now is: Sell or Hold?

(Buying more seems to be out of question).

My strategic will be the opening price. My personal view is if the price moving up above opening price, I will let the profit run. If the price stuck or moving south, then I will let others to hold the baby. I can always come back another day.

Disclaimer apply.

Gold for Good

2009-11-24T14:21:00.001+08:00

Head and Shoulder of Gold

2009-11-24T09:12:00.001+08:00

Capitaland - Reclaiming Major Uptrend Line

2009-10-26T08:44:00.002+08:00

The chance is very high now.

I will friend friend with trend, no against it!

Genting - Post Listing of Right Share

2009-10-21T12:29:00.002+08:00

Today is the first day for the right share to flood the market. In fact, this counter has been on downtrend/consolidation mode in participation of the listing of these new share.

I would comment that Genting absorb pretty well the selling pressure, especially the general macro market sentiment is so so, if not bad.

As long as Genting hitting $1.14, that would means that Genting has breakout of downtrend and the reversal shall be the next move.

This is a counter worth waiting for. Expecting more news from Sentosa appear on newspaper, which is good to generate feel good sentiment.

Capitaland - Single, Double and it Broken! (soon lah!)

2009-10-14T23:47:00.004+08:00

I believe $4.50 is ultimate target for this uptrend. The task is a bit tough and take sometime, but that shall be the eventual outcome before reality set in again.

The major uptrend line likely turn around become resistance now.

Genting - The Inverted Head and Shoulder Breakout

2009-10-14T23:11:00.002+08:00

Good show is coming for Genting shareholders before the opening of casino.

Likely going to distribute free $100 bucks entry ticket to everyone do have faith :-)

PTC- Logistic

2009-10-13T08:37:00.001+08:00

Low profile gem (not germ for sure!).

MIIF - The Exhaustion Drop Is The Killing Factor

2009-10-11T10:24:00.005+08:00

The price movement has breakout of short term down trend last week but the next resistance is very close, $0.37. This resistance has the backing of the huge plunge created on 13 August 2009. In view of the basic of the 'love of dividend' is affected, I don't think this will be fully reversed.

Capitaland - The Ruler Game

2009-10-10T16:57:00.001+08:00

I think the market player playing this stock with ruler on hand. Take note of two pairs of top now.

Sinotel - Potential Head and Shoulder Formation

2009-10-10T11:58:00.002+08:00

Based on the daily chart, $0.63 is the neckline and if the price hover around that for too long to form the right shoulder, then a measured target to $0.47 shall be on the way.

However, since the rosy market prospect from bullish action originated from DJ, the formation is likely to be negated. The upside target shall challenge the recent top level.

The weekly chart seems to agree to the daily to reflect a potential reversal.

Follow the smart money

2009-10-10T09:32:00.005+08:00

With the Dow Jones index breaking out of imminent down trend this week, we could reasonably expect that the basket of penny stocks in SGX market will turn into frantic mode again very very soon. Instead of selective breakout this week, the tide on next week probably will lift all boats.

Penny stocks are the darling of retailers but that will not set the sustainable up trend. Our focus shall be on those penny stocks with new injection of capital from investment fund. With those private investment fund which proclaim specialized in penny stocks, aka micro-cap companies, there are limited logical sense why they don’t know how to cook.

List of stocks with most recent injection of fund are

He missed one line

2009-08-23T20:18:00.001+08:00

We saved the world from disaster, Bernanke says
The global economy is now beginning to emerge from its worst crisis in generations, but the downturn might have been much worse if central banks hadn’t acted so forcefully last fall, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says.

Obviously, his statement shall read: We saved the world from disaster created by us.

What next to Money?

2009-08-23T08:23:00.002+08:00

Every weekday reading the Money section on Strait Times. I think it is hard for anyone to avoid stumble into Obituaries section.

I presume there is a hidden message: No matter make or lose in investing, we will be concluded at same point one day, sooner or later.

Enjoy investing!

Free fall on 东方海皇轮船?

2009-06-10T00:44:00.002+08:00

Very beautiful down trend in 4 days after a gap up and doji. For 10 June 2009, it will be very interesting to see if it can play between 1.59 and 1.49 range on 5th day. A break above 1.59 will signal a breakout of down trend and reversal. A breakout below 1.49 likely to send it to target of 1.38.

Since the right issue is 1.30, if NOL ever hit 1.38, I think the best thing the existing shareholder can do is to just hold tight with it. Someone will make sure the right is fully subscribed in order to prevent the big boy force to acquire too much share which may trigger general offer.

Ezra- whipsaw but up trend intact

2009-06-07T07:47:00.002+08:00

Since the breakout to upside, the price has whipsaw. However, the trend is always up despite present of white and black candles along the way. By the way, who will expect a one straight line type of price action?

Stay course, focus on the target.

Ezra- Golden Cross

2009-05-24T09:35:00.007+08:00

The 50 day moving average appears poised to make a golden cross, with an almost flat 200 day moving average. This positive signal suggests that the current corrective phase is probably temporary and should be resolved on the upside. There is nothing to suggest that the uptrend is over. Annual momentum is just turning up from oversold lows.

For now, though, short-term indicators are still on their way down. Support for the corrective phase is at $1. Resistance is at $1.40. A successful break indicates a target of $1.80(**Investsgx: If you no idea how to derive target at $1.80, kindly email me at investsgx@gmail.com. I vested today, 25 May 2009 after breakout!**). The market is excited because Ezra’s expertise in sub-sea equipment could be much in demand if Australia’s North-West Shelf is to be developed further, market watchers say.
What Does Golden Cross Mean?(more below)

A crossover involving a security's short-term moving average breaking above its long-term moving average or resistance level.

Investopedia explains Golden Cross
As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market.

Technicians might see this cross as a sign that the market has turned in favor of the stock.

Best Trading Strategies or Best Trading Tragedies

2009-05-19T07:19:00.000+08:00

I am reading some marketing material and someone claimed that they have the best trading strategies in the Forex market to share with me.

They gave the quick summary as follow:

- The 7 steps that will boost any system's win %
- How to avoid being one of the 95% who fail
- Trade management used by the world's elite traders
- How to profit from random noise in the market
- How to avoid the high cost of broker commissions
- How to avoid high stress in trading
- How to have a full-time job and still trade
- How to get a home-run every time you trade

Here is what I thought when I read those lines:

- How to avoid being one of the 95% who fail
Loser outnumbered winner not for no reason. Being difference from the crowd seems to be the logical pre-requisition. However, the most lethal point is that most people think they are unique and difference from Mr. Tom, Dick and Harry sitting beside him. The fact is: We are the same creature of life with too much similarity of heritage weakness.

- Trade management used by the world's elite traders
Will elite traders tell you what they did if their system work?

- How to profit from random noise in the market
Random noise means random market direction? Well, the risk to catch random market is like playing with flying knifes. Trending market is more predictable and likely more profitable with acceptable risk.

- How to avoid the high cost of broker commissions
We have limited choice in Singapore market. Nonetheless, the saving in commissions will not make us richer then what we want to be. I would rather reward the broker with a competitive commission for good services. We shall not assume that we can make good profit and at the same time exploiting them as a discount broker.

- How to avoid high stress in trading
There is not point making money but suffering high stress. The most preferred way is to increase the level of certainty to lower the stress level. However, high risk high return, low risk low return, no risk no return.

- How to have a full-time job and still trade
Who need a full-time job when you have the ‘best trading strategies’ on the planet earth?

- How to get a home-run every time you trade
Me or Mr. Market make a home-run? If we can make a home-run for every trade, who is going to carry the baby at the end of cycle?

- The 7 steps that will boost any system's win %
These 7 steps are perfect plan for an arm chair trader. However, the actual market challenge is obviously much tougher then what everyone could imagine. Instead of strategies, we need action plan before it turn out to be tragedies.

Enjoy the roller coaster ride!

S-Chip: Focus on Quality instead of Valuations

2009-04-26T10:54:00.000+08:00

The Edge quoted CIMB selection of 3 stocks: Pacific Andes, China Fishery and Midas Holding.

Pacific Andes and China Fishery are essentially in the similar sector: Fishery. The third, Midas has been tipped as next strong stock due to China Stimulus plan. However, Midas did not get the sense of midas touch yet.

If my memory does not fail me, last time CIMB also picked FerroChina into their list. Good hor?!

Update of "STI - Breakout or Breakdown?"

2009-04-21T21:07:00.002+08:00

This is an update to the previous post on "STI - Breakout or Breakdown?" dated 12 April 2009.

The Index is an obedient son to the technical this round. The STI hit the resistant line and quietly retreated as predicted.

The index will likely plunge to around 1675 in one month times.

Uni-Asia Saga

2009-04-21T20:54:00.003+08:00

This is not just another common listed entity in Singapore. The history of this stock leaves many seasoned investors stunted like a school boy watching Ms. Eng walking down Holland Village.

On 15 April 2009, the share price of Uni-Asia suddenly jumped 54% from the opening price of 29.5 cents to 45.5 cents with whopping volume of 1.62M shares changed hand. That is after it hit the intraday high of 49 cents before the trading halt during lunch time. This is unusual because the normal trading volume is hardly more then 100 lots with many days without a single share traded.

The answer to this mystery seems to be in an announcement after trading halt about the letters of demand they issued to reclaim the deposit for prior order.

The letters of demand are issued on 12 and 13 April respectively. Why the announcement has been made only on 15 April 2009 after the share price ran wild?

Is this announcement is not material and price sensitive? Why 14 April missing from the calendar?

Congratulation if you are the lucky one. Uni-Asia closed at 50 cents today.

STI - Breakout or Breakdown?

2009-04-12T10:02:00.003+08:00

The STI is going to gap up on Monday for sure. However, that will just bring STI one more step closer to the resistance of the channel now.

Unless already in the market from March trough, buy at resistance is usually not advisable.

No matter what is the conclusion made, the fact is the risk reward ratio seems increased and increasing now.

"Buy" List this week

2009-04-12T09:45:00.003+08:00

This week, the stocks listed is actually came from DMG. These stock in general have been classified as 'defensive' and 'with strong cash position'.

Ascendas Reit
Capitaland
Midas Holdings
Starhub
ST Engineering
Venture

Well, I thought Starhub is heavily leveraged?

I am confused

2009-04-12T08:28:00.002+08:00

Whoever played the ‘recovery theme’ to buy in the blue chips as according to The Edge selected stock list shall be celebrating now.

The average gain of quality blue chip is not less spectacular then how penny stocks perform triple jump stunt show in bull market. Well, you may not impressed, as one tide life all boats.

Indeed, The Edge also has a list of stock to sell. Last check, if you short the stocks as suggested, you will be considered lucky if you still can keep your fingers to press a button now.

I have to confessed that the way market perform always make me confused, even though I have managed to fish some the so call blue chips from the last trough. Be it bull or bear, they are people and experts claim they know the best (probably by looking backward only) but offer no meaningful forward idea for my next trade.

Going down the road, I may choose ETF instead of individual counters to eliminate specific stock risk from my portfolio. I hope this will help me to eliminate some consistent worry of surprise, of course, the rude one, from the morning news.

Happy investing!

Reality check for market rally- BT

2009-04-08T05:16:00.001+08:00

Despite the recent powerful rally by S'pore blue chips, yesterday's pullback is making analysts wary of calling a bottom
By LYNETTE KHOO

The roller-coaster ride on the Singapore stock market continues. Thanks to the recent rally, most blue chips have put on weight, with many index stocks seeing double-digit gains over the past four weeks.

But yesterday's sharp pull-back suggests that the blue chips led rally may be a false dawn, with analysts wary of calling a bottom at this point.

'The lead economic indicators have not shown any sign that there is a bottoming or a recovery, or there are no concrete signs of that,' said SIAS Research vice-president Roger Tan.

Some 25 of the 30 index stocks rose by double-digit percentages between March 9, a year's low for the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI), and April 6.

The banks, with a hefty combined 26.7 per cent weighting on the STI, were among the biggest winners. After giving up some gains yesterday, shares of DBS and OCBC were still higher than their closings on March 9 by 36.9 per cent and 32.7 per cent. UOB was 27.8 per cent higher. Property counters also rebounded from their lows on March 9. Despite yesterday's losses, CapitaLand shares have gained 43.6 per cent since March 9, City Developments 43 per cent and Hongkong Land Holdings 21.5 per cent.

The STI has risen some 27 per cent from March 9 before yesterday's 2.4 per cent dive left it at 1,802.39 points.

In the view of SIAS Research's Mr Tan, this rally was not supported by fundamentals, and was due in part to some pent-up demand from investors who were waiting on the sidelines.

'The last few weeks of upward trend was an extension of what I call a 'hope and fear cycle'. With the economic data coming out and the G-20 meeting, governments will do more and these promises brought back the hope that markets may bottom out or recover earlier than expected,' he said.

DMG & Partners Securities' senior dealing director Gabriel Yap described the low of 1,456.95 points touched on March 9 as 'one of the few inflexion points that could be part of a series of range-trading rallies'. At this point, the technical charts still look bearish in the near term, Kim Eng technical analyst Ken Tai noted.

He fears that this may be a bear trap, as was seen in the last leg of the bear market in 1998, where the market rebounded by 49 per cent within three months only to fall by the same magnitude over the next six months.

'At this point, I'm not turning outright bullish,' he added. 'The recent rebound is part and parcel of short-covering . . . rather than the work of genuine investors, which I think are not in the market yet.'

Mr Tai expects the bear market to last for another six months or so, with the STI forming a U-shape recovery. He thinks that the worst is over for the market, so investors should 'look for stocks to buy, not to short'.

But the ride from here will be bumpy.

Some of these bumps may include corporate earnings as the quarterly reporting season kicks in this month, and the stress test of banks in the United States at the end of this month. Recent gains have made the market more vulnerable to a short-term correction, they say.

Mr Yap of DMG said he is already expecting a 28-35 per cent fall in first-quarter earnings year on year for Singapore companies. A below-expectations set of results would stoke the market on the downside.

'This downturn, which lasts 17 months, is the longest since 1937 and 1981. Where we go from here will depend on the news that will come out,' he said. 'But you must be positioned whether it is a bear market trap or it's a turnaround for the market.'

Investors should be more willing to add risk to their portfolio by adopting a higher beta-sensitive portfolio going forward, Mr Yap said, citing highly interest rate-sensitive stocks such as banks, property and Reits, and oil palm stocks such as Noble Group, Olam and Wilmar.

Mr Tan of SIAS Research predicts that a worst-case scenario could see the STI sliding towards 1,300 again.

'But there is no need to avoid equities,' he added. Investors who are taking on a long-term view can consider dollar-cost averaging. This is where an investor works his way into a position by slowly buying small amounts and spreading the costs over a longer period of time.

Alternatively, investors can consider buying put warrants to hedge against the downside, he said.

Mr Tan still advocates a defensive strategy with telcos and banks and recommends buying the STI exchange-traded fund, which capitalises on potential gains in blue chips and involves lower risk than buying into individual stocks.

Play the recovery theme

2009-04-05T14:06:00.002+08:00

The Edge has selected list of local stocks to play the recovery theme. However, the condition is if you believe there is a recovery market only!

Buy List
Ascendas REIT
Capitaland
City Development
ComfortDelGro
DBS
Keppel Corp
Olam
Sembcorp Industries
Sembcorp Marine
Singapore Press
SingTel
ST Engineering

My personal preference is those without specific bad news as bolded.

Prove me right

2009-03-24T20:27:00.000+08:00

Someone call that a bear market rallies can be violent and exciting. Well, that is very true if you have selected the high beta stocks and rides on it for the last few trading sessions. Example: DBS, UOB, SGX and etc.

Someone told me before if I willing to help a badly battled stock, I will be handsomely rewarded. Well, that is very true also if you have selected the pariah stocks and rides on it for the last few trading sessions. Example: NOL, Capitaland, KepLand and SembCorp Ind. etc.

The blue chip also can be as crazy as penny stock in rally!

Now, I am happy to take profit and jump out of the rally. I am waiting time to prove me right that the market is in Bear Rally at the end.

China Hongxing Sport: Is the cash really really there? Part 1

2009-03-01T14:11:00.002+08:00

To judge by just looking at China Hongxing Sport latest price chart, people would assumed that this company has suffered big loss from their business or just issued a profit warning. Multiple support lines have just broken with huge transaction volume, at 18 cents, 15.5 cents and 11.5 cents as shown below.

In actual fact, the announced result on 17 February 2009 is within expectation if not outstanding. At least they has the qualification to announce the result under the caption of : CHINA HONGXING RECORDS SOLID REVENUE AND PROFIT GROWTH FOR FY2008. This is because for the full year of 2008, revenue surged 41.2 per cent to 2.89 billion yuan and net profit climbed 7.7 per cent to 448.5 million yuan.

The actual problem is on 4th quarter 2008 which sees higher costs and a dip in profit margin thus pushed net earnings down 29.8 per cent.

Worst still, they did not declare final dividend despite strong cash position.

If this is not enough, there is information regarding the outstanding amount of advances to distributors amounting to RMB 1,155.5 million. This is not a small amount in comparison to their cash position of RMB 1,981.7 million. CHS’s response to SGX queries is here.

CHS has responded to Business Times article (25 Feb 09, page 5) titled “Talk of accounting issues, margin calls hurts S-chips”. In short, CHS intend to “assure the financial community that the Board and management team conducts itself with the
highest standards of corporate governance and transparency”.

However, I found that another more ‘damaging’ article on Business Times is titled: “Is the cash really there?” The name of CHS is not mentioned, but some S-chip is mentioned. Some may find CHS fit into the category in focus: Sitting on a huge pile of cash, but there's still no sign of dividends.

The article basically raises the question: 'Is the cash really really there?' The Satyam Syndrome can be deadly if not treated early!'

Time to get REAL with REIT

2009-02-22T16:46:00.000+08:00

Three market talks summarized from The Edge this week (23/2/09) about REIT.

1. Mapletree Logistics Trust – could be privatized
2. MacarthurCook Industrial Reit – is looking for buyer & said has approached Ascendas Reit
3. Frasers Commercial Trust – Need to retire > $620 million debt in 2009, may unable to monetize its assets to pare down debt

Time to get REAL with REIT.

SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD

2009-02-17T00:00:00.002+08:00

The best scenario is DJ plunged in 3 digit scale and the price drop to $1.98 on opening-- > My most ideal entry price.

My chart shown that ST Eng is due for a rebound, but it shall go down lower to make a 'safe' entry level. However, since DJ is closed tonight and result is knocking the door, it is time to decide to set sail or not when East wind has not arrived yet.

Look at the chart you will know what I mean.

Capitaland - In my bag now

2009-02-15T14:20:00.001+08:00

By looking at the amount of posting about Capitaland, it is obvious that I have brought Capitaland. I will make payment to take delivery of the stock on Monday.

I don’t believe that the current valuation is the trough valuation, or so call bottom. However, I am happy to hold on to something by just paying fraction of it value.

As Lim (CFO of Capitaland) put it: This is a once-in-100-years chance. Historically, companies that made big leaps used a disrupted-market situation to do it. It's got to a point where we will be able to take a leap forward.

Since many people expecting property market to crash, I think this may be a good windows to buy and hold to quality property stock to wait for the market return to normal time.

SPC - Long or Short? Who won?

2009-02-14T20:39:00.003+08:00

Nobody.

Hahalol concluded that SPC is matured for short at $2.75 on 8 February 2009 morning. However, Student of Davidau35 rebuted that SPC can hit $3.10 by coming week.

Since one week has past and SPC closed at $2.73 on Friday, we can concluded that the prediction by Student of Davidau35 is too far out by any standard. Nonetheless, a mere different of 2 cents may not make hahalol as clear winner.

Anyway, the bearish engulfing candlestick on 9 February 2009 is a clear sell signal for anyone who keen to collect the token in subsequent 3 days.

Capitaland - Testing Resistance

2009-02-14T16:36:00.003+08:00

Testing resistance at $2.77 and $2.78 for the last few days. Noticed the declining volume in consolidation stage. This probably due to the quiet market and dissipatation of impact of right issue lately.

Current volume still slightly above average. Not really a concern now.

Nonetheless, the subsequent days may see the price movement forming a 'flag'.

What is your view?

Capitaland Trend Reversal

2009-02-12T07:23:00.001+08:00

The trend reversal is absolutely confirmed. The first check point at $2.80 is in sight. Expecting profit taking in coming session. Your view?

Capitaland - Super Bullish Trend Reversal Signal

2009-02-10T16:29:00.002+08:00

This is a classical reversal sign and I just love it.

In V3GO methology, once the stock bounced back and cross above opening price (more still, last closing price), that present an entry signal. (Not V3Go student, by the way)

Rights issues to pad up CapitaLand, CMT war chests

2009-02-10T07:08:00.001+08:00

Both issues offered at steep discounts; CapitaLand looking at acquisitions, CMT to pay off debt

By UMA SHANKARI

Singapore's biggest property developer CapitaLand and its listed retail trust CapitaMall Trust (CMT) yesterday announced two rights issues totalling some $3.07 billion.

CapitaLand said that it will raise $1.84 billion in a 1-for-2 rights issue to build up its war chest to $6 billion, from $4.2 billion now, as it remains on the lookout for acquisition opportunities in markets such as Singapore and China. The developer's fourth-quarter net profit slumped 88 per cent.

And CMT, Singapore's largest real estate investment trust which is 29.7 per cent owned by CapitaLand, will raise $1.23 billion in a 9-for-10 rights offer. It will use most of the proceeds to pay off $956.2 million of debt due this year.

Market rumour that CapitaLand was planning a rights issue first surfaced early last month, depressing the company's shares.

CapitaLand is the second major Singapore company to raise money through a rights issue in recent months. In late December, DBS Group said that it planned to raise about $4 billion to bulk up its capital base. Both CapitaLand and DBS count Singapore investment company Temasek Holdings as their largest shareholder.

'This year is turning out to be a race in raising funds through rights issues and has depressed CapitaLand's shares for a while,' Nicole Sze, a Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co, told Bloomberg.

But while CapitaLand's rights issue was expected, CMT's announcement took some by surprise. Analysts were expecting it to just look for debt refinancing. Another one of CapitaLand's Reits, CapitaCommercial Trust, recently said that it had refinanced at attractive rates.

Another element that caught most analysts by surprise was the steep discounts at which the rights issues are being done.

CapitaLand's rights offer is priced at $1.30 a share, which represents a 45 per cent discount to its closing price of $2.36 a share last Friday, the last day that the stock was traded. The offer price is also at a 54 per cent discount to CapitaLand's post-rights issue net tangible asset (NTA) of $2.80 per share.

Likewise, CMT is making its rights offer at 82 cents a unit - 43.4 per cent lower than last Friday's closing price of $1.45 and also 50.3 per cent lower that CMT's expected net asset value per unit once the rights issue is completed.

'CapitaLand and CMT could be pricing the rights issues lower to entice their shareholders to take up their allotments in the current weak market,' said one analyst.

Both the developer and its trust are expected to be in a better position to grow once the rights issues are completed.

CapitaLand said that the 'pre-emptive' rights issue will provide it with 'greater financial capacity to pursue acquisitions and investment opportunities that may arise'.

'We will also be well-positioned for any mergers and acquisitions opportunities that might arise,' said CapitaLand chief executive Liew Mun Leong. 'We have a number of proposals on the table that we are studying but we are not ready to make any announcements yet.'

He identified Singapore, China and Japan as attractive markets for acquisitions, and also said that CapitaLand is on the lookout for distressed assets.

CMT, on the other hand, will use the bulk of the proceeds to repay borrowings due this year, which total $956.2 million. The balance will be used to pay for asset enhancement initiatives as well as for general corporate and working capital purposes.

DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee said that the rights issue puts CMT 'in the clear when it comes to its debt' - which means that CMT will not have to compete with other property trusts for financing in the tight credit environment.

Lim Beng Chee, chief executive of CMT's manager, said that the trust chose to go with a rights issue rather than look for refinancing for its loans as it was looking at the 'longer-term'. The rights issue is expected to provide the trust with greater financial flexibility for future opportunities, such as asset enhancement works at Jurong Entertainment Centre and the newly-acquired The Atrium@Orchard, he said.

Analysts also said that the trust will be better positioned to make acquisitions after the rights issue as its gearing is expected to fall from 43.2 per cent to 29.1 per cent. This will make it easier for CMT to raise money in future. CapitaLand similarly said that its net gearing will be reduced from 0.47 times now to 0.28 times after the rights issue. But the developer's NTA per share will fall from $3.57 to $2.80.

CapitaLand has agreed to subscribe for up to 60 per cent of the total size of CMT's rights issue, including its rights entitlement based on its current 29.7 per cent stake. If CapitaLand takes up 60 per cent of the rights issue, its stake in CMT will climb to 44.1 per cent. The developer said that it will not use any proceeds from its own rights issue to buy any units in CMT's rights issue, and will instead use existing cash reserves.

CapitaLand also said that Temasek Holdings, which has a direct stake of 39.7 per cent in the company, will subscribe to all rights shares that it is entitled to.

Shares of both CapitaLand and CMT resume trading today.

CapitaLand finds '07 tough act to follow

2009-02-10T07:06:00.000+08:00

Full-year net profit halves to $1.26b after Q4 earnings plunge 88%
By KALPANA RASHIWALA

PROPERTY giant CapitaLand yesterday posted a score-card that was in eclipse, as even the bluest of bluechip players are being hit by the ongoing financial maelstrom.

The group's fourth quarter net earnings fell 88.4 per cent to $77.96 million, while full-year net profit slipped 54.3 per cent to $1.26 billion. Return on equity fell from 31.9 per cent in 2007 to 12.2 per cent last year.

However, CapitaLand Group president and CEO Liew Mun Leong was far from downcast over the poorer bottom line at a results briefing yesterday afternoon. Instead, he said: 'During this recessionary period, it is satisfying to be able to achieve more than a billion dollar profit after tax.'

He also pointed out that the full-year 2008 showing was the third consecutive year that the group has achieved net profit of above $1 billion.

Shareholders will receive a 1.5 cent per share special dividend in addition to a 5.5 cent per share first-and-final dividend, resulting in a total payout of seven cents for the year ended Dec 31, 2008, down from the 15-cent payout in the preceding year.

For Q4 ended Dec 31, 2008, earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) fell 77 per cent to $235 million. Revenue for the quarter also shrank 46.9 per cent to $703.7 million. A large part of the Ebit contraction was due to revaluation losses for the group's investment properties portfolio, plus the absence of writeback of provisions. The group booked a $103.9 million net revaluation loss for Q4 2008, as against a net revaluation gain of $470.1 million for Q4 2007 'as real estate property values came under pressure amidst the weakened economic conditions and gloomy outlook', CapitaLand said.

Full-year revenue declined 27.4 per cent to $2.8 billion. Total revenue under management (this covers revenue for all properties managed by the group, including revenue from associates, joint ventures and properties managed but not owned by CapitaLand) slipped about 16 per cent to $5.9 billion from 2007's $7 billion. For the full year, Ebit shrank 42.1 per cent to $2.2 billion, on the back of lower fair value gains from investment properties, lower development profits and the absence of writebacks of previous provisions.

Overseas Ebit contribution last year eased to $1.3 billion from nearly $1.5 billion for 2007. The drop was due mainly to lower contribution from Australia due to the provision for foreseeable losses on development projects and fair value losses on investment properties (against fair value gains in 2007), but this was partly mitigated by the recognition of negative goodwill.

While most of CapitaLand's strategic business units posted lower Ebit last year, two shining stars emerged. CapitaLand China Holdings achieved record earnings of $883.4 million, more than double the $403.4 million Ebit for 2007, thanks to divestment gains from the sale of Capital Tower Beijing and the Raffles City portfolio in China.

The group's funds management business was the other star performer. Total assets under management grew by $8.2 billion last year to $25.9 billion. CapitaLand Financial's full-year Ebit rose 29.6 per cent to $90.4 million. CapitaLand Group's fund management fees rose 53 per cent to $182 million. Property management fees increased 16 per cent to $231 million. As well, CapitaLand enjoyed a stable distribution of $131 million from its real estate investment trusts (Reits) last year, resulting in total income of over $500 million last year from its Reits and funds.

The group's finance costs rose 27.9 per cent last year to $516.3 million. It trimmed gross debt from $10.4 billion as at Sept 30, 2008, to $9.8 billion as at Dec 31, 2008. Net debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.47 times as at end-2008, unchanged from the end-2007 figure. Interest cover ratio fell from 9.4 in 2007 to 5.0 in 2008, and interest service ratio declined from 6.2 to 3.9 over the same period.

The group's attributable share of debt for its 17 private equity funds was $580 million as at Dec 31, 2008.

CapitaLand Retail plans to open ION Orchard mall in mid-2009. In China, it has decided not to proceed with developing 12 malls signed under respective MOUs. It has also deferred the launch of its proposed Malaysia retail Reit.

CapitaLand shows it is ahead of the curve -BT

2009-02-10T07:04:00.000+08:00

It has moved fast as it realises that markets now like deleveraged outfits
By SIOW LI SEN
Businesstimes.com

Slightly less than 12 months ago, CapitaLand boss Liew Mun Leong bragged about how the company still had access to the capital markets after selling $1.3 billion convertible bonds despite the credit crunch.

In a BT interview in March 2008, he said that the current credit crunch was making borrowing very difficult for real estate companies whose balance sheets were not too strong. 'If banks are now restricting their exposure to you in direct lending, and the capital market is now very cautious, then funding becomes a problem,' he said. 'For us, we are very well capitalised. Banks still trust us to do the normal borrowing.'

Yesterday Mr Liew seemed to be turning his back on banks and tapping shareholders for funds. CapitaLand announced a $3 billion rights issuance and 30-per cent owned CapitaMall Trust launched its $1.2 billion rights.

While it would be impossible to get that amount of funding from international banks, a blue chip like CapitaLand should be able to borrow from the local banks which are flush with liquidity. In addition, the company has $4.2 billion cash, so why raise equity at a hefty 45 per cent discount, especially when there are no specific acquisitions in mind, were some of the questions asked.

In normal times, you don't raise equity which is expensive and scarce, unless needed.

But these being far from normal times, bankers say CapitaLand is reading the market correctly - which is that investors want deleveraged companies given that no one knows just how long the downturn will last.

Investors now want companies to have fortress balance sheets, to paraphrase JP Morgan's chief executive Jamie Dimon, and CapitaLand wants to be so strong that no one questions it, regardless of how bad the recession gets, said one banker.

'The view is that in Europe and US where things went bad first, banks which raise funds from shareholders earlier did better,' said another.

'In Asia, the downturn is hitting only now, there is a limited pool of capital and it makes sense to go first,' he said.

After the rights issue, CapitaLand's net debt-to- equity ratio will improve to 0.28 from the current 0.47. CapitaMall Trust said its aggregate leverage will reduce to 29.1 per cent from 43.2 per cent assuming it repays borrowings with the rights proceeds.

CapitaLand's move is seen as tactical, strengthening its balance sheet, preparing for the downturn and ready for opportunities which will come.

Mr Liew may not feel much like thumping his chest but one admirer said: 'By being the first, he's listening to the market.'

Straits Asia - Looking forward to reload

2009-02-08T09:55:00.006+08:00

This is a chart for Straits Asia first drawn on 2 January 2009. One month after the up and down of market, the movement of price is pretty much within the expectation.

As the Edge rightfully pointed out that the stock is currently "'just isn't enough volume or interest in the counter to trigger a breakout", their view point is quite neutral as published in Hot Stocks column.

My inclination is to believe that the price shall retreat to support at $0.835 before meaningful bounce up.

Comment welcome!

I follow hahalol to buy in Swiber!

2009-02-04T23:05:00.002+08:00

I bought at 0.485. I believe the stock is ripe for a breakout. Even if the stock is trap within the triangle again, the support is likely to push it back to resistant at 60cents.

Albeit the profit margin is smaller then previous rebound, but still a clean signal.

The toy gal is belong to Hahalol, don't get distracted!

The bull is coming to town?!

2009-01-25T16:16:00.001+08:00

Let the bull charge!

Mid-term trendline support broken? Not Yet!

2009-01-13T08:30:00.002+08:00

Mid-term trendline support at 1,766
By KEN TAI,
senior technical strategist,
KELIVE RESEARCH
(part of the Kim Eng Group)

DESPITE the recent pullbacks, the local bourse remains within wave-4 of the primary downtrend. In a complex wave-4 structure like the current one, the Straits Times Index (STI) may stage a correction before pushing up to complete the formation.

Unless the STI falls below the 1,766 support trendline, we consider the bear rally to be intact. On this premise too, we see scope for the STI to recover this week as it is still trading above the mid- term support trendline established over the past two months.

We would advise investors to cut loss only if this mid-term support trendline is breached, a scenario that would negate the recovery view and one that could potentially send the market towards the next support at 1,711. Although the upcoming Jan 22 Budget remains a possible re-rating catalyst in the very short term, it would be prudent to hedge some risks by going long on Reits.

Look to sell into strength or risk being bear-trapped - again

2009-01-05T10:28:00.003+08:00

You may dislike negative view during rally time. However, whoever long in 2008 during rally (except end Oct/ beginning Nov. rebound) will know what exactly is 'Bear Rally' (of course, after being trapped only!).

By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
Source: Businesstimes.com

FOR most of 2008, the advice given in this column was to selectively buy the dips but to always sell into strength because all bounces would eventually turn out to be bear traps.

As 2009 kicks off, we see no reason to change this - as the economic data worsens and it becomes clear that the recession could be worse than expected and last probably for most of this year. Investors will find it increasingly difficult to justify continued buying, especially as earnings head south and profit warnings become the norm.

One reason for this assertion is that 2008 demonstrated very graphically the folly in believing that the market discounts information efficiently. It does not. Every time there was a bounce there was no shortage of calls that the 'worst is over', only for this to be later proven wrong.

The main problem, of course, is asymmetrical bias introduced by analysts, most of whom always want to call a 'buy' because of momentum, fear of losing out, and a need to keep clients invested in order to generate business.

There's also bias introduced by the US government with its bailout packages that are funded by the printing presses. Goldman Sachs estimates that the Fed's balance sheet will be US$4 trillion-US$5 trillion when this is over, double the present figure.

So it is that a year after the market started correcting, it's very likely that urgings to buy will soon be issued based on the argument that after so long, the worst must surely be discounted because market inefficiency cannot last this long.

This is highly unlikely, with the present bounce being yet another bear market rally since it has come despite the Singapore government downgrading 2009's growth forecast to possibly as low as -2 per cent. There's also news that local property prices are in free fall (possibly as much as -30 to -35 per cent in the high end) and as US manufacturing chalked up its worst performance in 30 years.

On the latter point, it's also worth noting that the US Institute of Supply Management's estimate of national manufacturing conditions at 32.4 was way below the consensus estimate of 35.4, suggesting that the pace of contraction is accelerating and that analysts are still under- appreciating the risks to the US economy.

Unlike some of its competitors, research outfit Ideaglobal, however, has been consistently spot-on in its assessment of economic conditions, and over the weekend it pointed to a deterioration in most of the underlying components of the US manufacturing numbers as probably marking the next leg down for months to come.

'In our estimation, the data confirms that weakness in the domestic side of the ledger is complementing deteriorating global conditions. The weakness in new orders, alongside weakness in production, is another indication of the soft demand for new goods on the back of a deteriorating labour market ...' said Ideaglobal.

In its US Economics Analyst report dated Dec 31, Goldman Sachs said it expects the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus to end the technical recession some time in the second half of 2009.

'This should set the stage for a very sluggish recovery that keeps the unemployment rate on an upward trajectory and the federal funds rate near zero per cent through late 2010. But the uncertainty is large. In the housing and credit markets, our main questions are how far home prices will fall, what this means for credit losses and how far banks will reduce their leverage. Downside risks predominate in all of these areas.'

Most interestingly, Goldman said even if policymakers manage to stabilise economic activity in 2009-10, the risk of unwanted deflation is likely to be substantial thereafter.

Of course, the present play on the major indices could continue for a while longer. Much of the Straits Times Index's (STI) rise over the past week, however, has come from gains in a few large caps, in particular UOB whose gains illustrate perfectly the current disconnect between market sentiment and economic/earnings reality.

This disconnect, however, shouldn't last too long, so those who bought a fortnight ago when this column highlighted a possible window-dressing play on the STI should soon sell into strength - or risk being caught in yet another bear trap.

Cosco is Hungry?!

2009-01-03T20:43:00.003+08:00

Most of the over sold signal is present. Target set at $1.10.

StraitAsia Target

2009-01-03T07:33:00.001+08:00

The uptrend is well supported and still young!

The Biggest Achievement

2009-01-03T07:13:00.002+08:00

The following paragraph is the best to sum up the great achievement of American in 2008. Indeed, we realized that American has channeled most if not all of their resources and effort in creative (but proven failure) financial engineering product. It is so complex that they themselves don’t even understand it.

We've cleaned the sewage system in the finance industry; we've purged the subprime mortgage bankers, brokers, and borrowers; we've blown open the biggest Ponzi scheme ever; we've uncloaked the automobile industry; we've admitted there never was nor is there a good reason for the war in Iraq; we've woken up to the war in Afghanistan; we've owned up to torture and unlawful rendition; we've discovered politicians' affairs, payoffs, and bribes; we've quashed gay marriage rights; we've unprotected protected parks and land areas; we've changed federal documents that show climate change is true; we've allowed genocide to rise and continue; we've been lied to (again) by a best-selling memoirist; we've experienced natural disasters and manmade ones; horses were slaughtered; bees went extinct; oceans suffocated; glaciers receded; and entire countries went bankrupt.

The full article link:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/these-best-times----no/story.aspx?guid=%7BF38F005A%2D2759%2D48B3%2DA135%2DAB6F59E3AC19%7D&dist=TNMostRead

The Champion Reit

2009-01-02T10:02:00.000+08:00

SAIZEN Reit has proposed a renounceable non-underwritten rights issue with free detachable and transferrable warrants. All these hinge on the issue price of 9 cents each, which represents a discount of about 30% of last-traded price of 13 cents.

Saizen has top the reit in Singapore as the worst performing reit in share price. It dropped by 85% (from $0.89 to $0.13) and distributing historical dividend of more then 40% now.

It dropped further 7.37% this morning to $0.12, after the announcement made.
Any investor with sound mind will not expect a 40% dividend payout to be sustainable in long term. The high level of gearing is worrisome under credit crunch environment. A better development now is for Saizen to find a substantial shareholder to sponsor the reit instead of currently fragmented shareholding.

It may be good for it to crash below 9 cents and to force all committed shareholders to subscribe all rights shares to increase their stake.

Looking back on a year of tumult - BT

2008-12-31T08:24:00.000+08:00

RARELY in economic or financial history has as much turmoil been visited upon the world in a single year as has happened during 2008. To name but a few events, we have seen the collapse of one-time blue-chip institutions like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers; the bailouts of others, including the insurance giant AIG, the US government-linked mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and also household names like Citigroup, the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyd's Bank. Major international banks have been recapitalised with taxpayer funds and some have been effectively nationalised, which hardly anyone would have dared to predict at the start of the year. There has been wealth destruction on a scale not seen since the Great Depression; indeed, this financial crisis is believed to be the worst since the terrible 1930s - something most of us never experienced.

The US Federal Reserve, after being behind the curve in the run-up to the crisis, has gone into overdrive. It opened various lending windows, funnelling more than US$1 trillion to financial institutions, taking even toxic mortgage debt as collateral. It slashed interest rates aggressively from 4.25 per cent for the Fed funds at the start of the year, to near zero. It also adopted an unorthodox policy of quantitative easing. The US Treasury came up with a US$700 billion financial bailout package.

In the background to all this turmoil was the tension and drama of the US presidential election, which produced the first African-American winner. Early indications suggest that Barack Obama might just be a leader of vision and decisiveness, the singular silver lining amid the dark clouds that dominated 2008. The year ended with news of a mind-boggling financial fraud estimated at US$50 billion, perpetrated by one-time respected financier Bernard Madoff. It was perhaps a fittingly shocking end to an annus horribilis.

For those of us on the other side of the world from the epicentre of the storm, the financial crisis has revealed some sobering truths. One is that the idea of 'decoupling' - that Asia's economies had somehow acquired an independent dynamic of their own - was a fantasy. The Singapore economy has gone from 7.7 per cent growth in 2007 to almost certain recession, and probably negative growth in 2009. Just about every Asian economy is feeling the downdraft of the made-in-America financial crisis. Even China and India, which were assumed to be relatively insulated, have been hard hit; their stock markets have, in fact, been the worst performers in Asia this year.

The financial storm is far from over, but we have some indications what 2009 might have in store. It will be a year of global recession. But it will also be one of dramatic policy moves, including perhaps the biggest-ever economic stimulus packages in history. It will be a year of tighter financial regulation, conservative, 'back-to-basics' banking and risk-averse investing. In short, 2009 promises to be the year of the hangover after a decade of financial excess. Hopefully, it will also be the year of the recovery, however slight.

StraitAsia - Long Signal with Wm%

2008-12-29T07:26:00.001+08:00

There are plenty of technical analysis indicator in the market. I would prefer a simplified but money making indicator. One of it is William Percentage.

I am looking at StraitAsia now. Same signal has generate decent profit 4 times whenever it occurred since September 2008 as per the chart attached herewith. With the signal generated now, this stock shall generate a profit in coming next few days.

Chart:

Louis Vuittons and Chanels

2008-12-27T12:59:00.004+08:00

Guess what? Recession? no way!

It is time to check your irrational spending habit. Nope, probably your wife/gf!

Picture from : http://www.kennysia.com/archives/2008/12/theres_a_queue.php

Quote BT today:
RECESSION or not, high-end retail brands such as Chanel and Louis Vuitton are still going ahead with plans to launch new stores and expand existing ones.

And with malls such as Ion Orchard, Orchard Central and the new Mandarin Gallery coming on-stream next year, consumers can also look forward to various new-to-Singapore brands.

Chanel, for one, will be launching a new watch and fine jewellery stand-alone store in Singapore at Ngee Ann City in March 2009, the first such store in South-east Asia, although Chanel has already launched its fine jewellery boutique in other parts of Asia such as China and Korea.

Chanel remains upbeat that the new store will do well, even with the deteriorating economy and dampening consumer sentiment. 'We've done our research,' said a Chanel spokesman, adding that the new concept will fulfil customer demands for such a store.

Crunch time -- industrial property

2008-12-24T08:27:00.000+08:00

The industrial property sector, which had grown at a steady pace for most of 2008, is unlikely to escape from the economic downturn that has hit its residential and office counterparts.

As manufacturing activity dips and relocations from offices slow, some property consultants believe that industrial rents and capital values could register double-digit percentage falls starting from Q4 2008. Industries could also start sub-letting space that they no longer need.

'With an expected slowdown in GDP growth and poor expectations of the performance of the manufacturing sector, demand for industrial space is likely to moderate,' said DTZ's senior director of research Chua Chor Hoon.

'The fourth quarter could be the turning point,' noted Knight Frank's head of industrial business space Lim Kien Kim.

According to DTZ data, growth within the industrial sector in the first three quarters of the year pushed the average rent of first-storey private industrial space up 6.8 per cent to $2.35 per sq ft per month (psf pm) in Q3. That of upper-storey space rose 7.9 per cent to $2.05 psf pm.

But rents could slide in Q4 as the manufacturing sector cools, said Ms Chua. The Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index fell for the third straight month in November, reflecting tougher times for manufacturers.

DTZ estimates that average rents of first-storey and upper-storey private industrial space could each drop by more than 2 per cent from the previous quarter to $2.30 and $2.00 psf pm, respectively, in Q4.

High-tech and business park spaces are likely to face the same sinking fate. Rents had jumped 15.4 per cent to $4.50 psf pm in the first three quarters, largely because more companies were moving over to avoid soaring office rentals.

The average occupancy rate in private sector business parks notched up 6.3 percentage points from Q4 last year to 93.2 per cent in Q3 2008, said DTZ.

'Businesses, including those occupying prime office space, increasingly found business parks to be attractive alternatives for housing approved back- end operations,' said Mr Lim.

But such spillover demand could slow as office rents fall amid a weakening economy. DTZ projects that the average rent of high-tech and business park space could drop to $4.30 psf pm in Q4, more than 4 per cent down from Q3.

As Colliers International's research and advisory director Tay Huey Ying said: 'Modern light-industrial and hi-specs industrial buildings would be worst hit as they will suffer from the double whammy of slowdown in demand from industrialists as well as from office users.'

She noted, however, that the industrial property sector had started to cool from the second half of 2008. Colliers's data pointed to a slight fall in rents of hi-specs space in H2, while those of factories and warehouses stayed flat in the same period.

As the downturn hits businesses, industrial tenants could start moving to cheaper locations, said Ms Tay. She also expects more downsizing companies to sub-let part of their premises.

DTZ's Ms Chua shared similar views. 'We may see some shadow space in the industrial sector next year, like what we are beginning to see in the office sector, as more companies consolidate their operations.'

Industrial landlord JTC Corporation has been taking back more space as manufacturing and related companies merged their operations. According to its quarterly facilities report for Q3 2008, termination at its ready-built facilities surged 25.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 45 per cent year-on-year.

'Industrial landlords could be more flexible in the coming months in order to maintain the occupancy levels of their industrial portfolio,' said Knight Frank's Mr Lim.

He estimates that for 2009, industrial rents could slide 7-12 per cent and prices by 10-15 per cent, with modern industrial space and business parks facing greater declines.

Ms Tay from Colliers believes that rents of conventional flatted factories and warehouses could drop by 12-15 per cent next year, while those of hi-specs industrial space could fall further by up to 20 per cent.

'Capital values are expected to soften by the same quantum as industrialists choose to conserve cash for their business operations instead of investing in an industrial unit,' she said.

Economic uncertainty has already spurred the Trade and Industry Ministry to suspend sales of state-owned industrial land on the Confirmed List for the first half of 2009.

While industrial rents and prices will fall, the sector is nowhere near a crash. 'The speculative element in industrial sector is not major,' said Mr Lim. As prices moderate to more realistic levels, 'the correction will be good as it will again draw investments back into industrial activities for Singapore'.

The Second “Poised for Breakout”–China Milk

2008-12-21T11:40:00.004+08:00

After successful breakout of Biosensor last week, this week the turn is China Milk to get the caption of “Poised for Breakout”.

“Poised for Breakout” seems likely to be more attractive in comparison to “Breaking out” as the former means the price has not moved and the latter means whoever buy now is buying at height.

The Edge---> China Milk ($0.41) is in a base formation. Quarterly momentum has strengthened notably. The breakout level is 41 cents and a successful breakout indicates a target of 56 cents.

Chart here:

Insensitive

2008-12-21T11:22:00.002+08:00

I think they should have better way to position the news.

Biosensor - Breakout Relook

2008-12-20T11:03:00.005+08:00

One week after the comment that Biosensor is 'poised for a breakout', let's take a look at the actual performance now.

The stock did broke out on Monday as predicted to $0.34 from $0.29 with unusual high volume. However, the initial target of $0.40 has not been achieved. Instead of that, it falled back to close at $0.315 last Friday, very close to its base formation level at $0.31.

Nonetheless, the high at $0.345 is indeed a bullish sign. Initial target of $0.40 is still achievable if the base can hold.

Property stocks rally - BT 20/12

2008-12-20T07:25:00.003+08:00

PROPERTY stocks savoured a sweet respite over the last two days from the market gloom after China announced plans to boost the real estate market.

But the rally is likely to be short-lived, some analysts argued, noting that the measures might have a limited impact on propping up sales amid a difficult economic climate.

The Chinese government said on Wednesday that it would abolish urban real estate tax, as well as cut the transaction tax for properties with ownership of two years or less.

It added that it would encourage banks to extend credit lines to developments in the mass-market housing segment.

Bigwigs in the property market - CapitaLand and Keppel Land - saw the biggest jump among sector peers with their exposure to the mid-tier Chinese market.

Shares of property bigwig CapitaLand surged 16.6 per cent over the last two days to end at $3.30 yesterday while shares of Keppel Land jumped 20.9 per cent to finish at $1.79.

Yanlord Land Group - which targets the Chinese luxury segment - rose on the dovetails of the rally in property stocks on Thursday, rising 17.4 per cent to $1.01.

But the stock fell back 2 per cent to 99 cents yesterday, with analysts noting that these measures are not targeted at luxury players.

'As the overall policy still focuses on supporting the housing needs of the low to middle income homebuyers, high-end developers might not benefit substantially from these changes,' wrote DBS Vickers Securities analyst Carol Wu.

'While the policy environment has continued to improve, full recovery of the sector remains uncertain amid the deteriorating economic outlook,' she said, adding that excessive inventory would prompt developers to cut prices and that the property downcycle trend in China could drag on for as long as two years.

Reuters reported yesterday that an analyst from Morgan Stanley saw the sharp increases in shares of Keppel Land as 'premature and unjustifiable' as solvency and refinancing risks were non-issues for the firm.

It would take time before such fiscal measures filter down to the provinces, said Brandon Lee, an analyst from DMG & Securities.

These steps are also aimed at cushioning a fall in demand rather than to engineer sales given the expected rise in unemployment in China, said Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho.

Oil going to hit US$20 or US$200?

2008-12-19T08:51:00.002+08:00

I think there all many experts mastering in the art of looking into crystal ball and potentially getting noble prize for it. Their only problem is that they are conveniently add in an extra zero or just omitting it.

I don’t think oil producing nations will keen to continue to pump out oil from ground just to sell it below cost for long.

“There is no precedent in fact in the modern era for oil prices to hit a bottom and just go sideways,” he said. “They hit a bottom and [the rebound] is U-shaped or Vshaped. It starts moving up quite quickly.

Oil is still searching for a bottom, and we’re not there yet. Analysts have been one upping each other lately with calls of US$20, US$25, US$30 oil. Mr. Bradford believes the bottom is in the US$30-toUS$40 range because that’s when significant Russian production comes under stress.

祸不单行 - GM

2008-12-14T16:59:00.002+08:00

Chinese say: 祸不单行. I think this is what happening to General Motor.

Investors who put their fortunes in the hands of arrested New York money manager Bernard Madoff are waiting to hear how much of their stake is left.

The roster of potential victims in what prosecutors said was a $50 billion Ponzi scheme has grown exponentially longer in the past few days.

Madoff, 70, said in regulatory filings that he only had around 25 clients, but it has become apparent that the list of people who lost money may number in the hundreds or even thousands.

Among those who have acknowledged potential losses so far: Former Philadelphia Eagles owner Norman Braman, New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon and J. Ezra Merkin, the chairman of GMAC Financial Services, which owned by Cerebrus Capital Management, which holds a 51-percent stake, and General Motors.

From: http://www.cnbc.com/id/28212100

Biosensor - Chart

2008-12-14T16:25:00.002+08:00

Biosensor- Poised for a breakout

2008-12-14T09:45:00.002+08:00

This may go crazy on Monday. There are rumours for takeover or M&A.

They are last traded at 29 cents. With an initial target of 40 cents from The Edge as follow, that is a 38% potential upside. Very tempting!

Biosensor is probably the most interesting chart from a punter’s perspective. Prices are approaching the top of the base formation at 31 cents. A breakout looks achievable. Quarterly momentum has turned up. Prices themselves have moved above the 50 DMA; RSI has risen above 50 and looks strong.

ADX has turned up from a low level, on the back of positively placed DIs. This is a bullish endorsement and should support a price break. Volume is expanding too. A successful break indicates an initial target of 40 cents.

Update, or the lack of it

2008-12-11T14:26:00.002+08:00

Not much posting lately because the market has just started to turn bullish. I am busy to make real money now, ya, trying. :-)

I am long only retail investor in stock, except warrant.

Trade with care. Good luck!

Recent rally may not have legs to last- AGAIN

2008-12-10T07:50:00.001+08:00

Another month, another ghost without leg is coming out?
http://investsgx.blogspot.com/2008/11/rally-have-no-legs-it-is-ghost.html

BT:
On the back of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of stimulus packages, stock markets around the world have bounced off their lows of October and November - some by as much as a third.

But beware, say most market watchers. This is likely to be a bear market rally - its sustainability is questionable and it may retest previous lows again.

'It's hard to call it a bottom,' said Timothy Wong, head of regional equity research with DBS Vickers Securities. 'There's been a lot of selling the last couple of months. The market is oversold in terms of valuation. But there is still no clarity of the underlying economic fundamentals recovering.'

Terence Wong, head of research at DMG & Partners, shared this view. 'When news of more retrenchments and negative data comes out, prices are going to be hit again even though people say it's all been factored in.'

Meanwhile, a fund manager described what we have seen in the last few sessions as a 'relief rally'.

'Markets are relieved that governments around the world are pledging to spend billions to soften the worst economic downturn in our lifetime. However, there is no assurance that the problems we are in can be readily remedied by throwing money around,' he said.

Still, the rally - be it bear or bull - is much welcome. And some markets have enjoyed a much bigger surge than others. For example, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index - despite shedding 2 per cent yesterday - is now a whopping 34 per cent off its low on Oct 28. China's CSI Index, which measures the 300 most representative A-shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, has rebounded by 25 per cent from its low on Nov 4.

At its Monday close, the US S&P 500 Index was 21 per cent above its Nov 20 low.

The Straits Times Index (STI), however, is a laggard. Following its strong 5.8 per cent surge yesterday, it is still only 9.6 per cent above its Oct 24 low of 1,600 points.

Bear market rallies can bounce as high as 50 per cent off their lows.

Norman Villamin, head of research and strategy, Citi Global Wealth Management Asia Pacific, has been expecting a bear rally.

'The backdrop today is very similar to what we saw in Japan in the 1990s,' he said. 'Prices have fallen significantly, down to book value everywhere except the US. What we are seeing now, which was missing in the past one year, is a sense of confidence that there will be some demand out there.'

US President-elect Barack Obama's details over the weekend of a stimulus plan to put 2.5 million people back to work in the next two years and talk of a second stimulus package from China give the market confidence that there will be some demand which can be counted on, said Mr Villamin.

But based on past experience - the most recent being the US$150 billion package announced by the US government in May - the effect of an injection on the markets lasts just 4-6 months.

'For a sustainable recovery, we need to see one or more of the following taking place,' said Mr Villamin.

One, in addition to the public sector spending, demand must also come from the private sector. And this will happen only when there are signs that the private sector's focus has moved away from deleveraging.

Two, the government stimulus package encourages US corporates to start investing again.

Three, government spending is able to create enough jobs to make up for all the lost positions in the private sector.

Four, there is aggressive debt relief for individuals and private sector balance sheets. But this is unlikely to be a top priority.

Adding to that, a fund manager said the market also needs to see US housing prices stop declining.

David Lee, managing director and chief investment officer of hedge fund Ferrell Asset Management, added two more negatives which need to subside for stocks to see meaningful rallies: banks need to start lending again, and refinancing rates need to decline - and credit spreads must fall as a result.

But he's seeing some positives already. Redemptions lately have been much smaller than anticipated, and money supply in the US is growing rapidly.

Further, Mr Obama's economic strategy and his new team are seen as having a lot of credibility. Meanwhile, exchange rates have been fairly stable, and 'market participants, especially analysts, are beginning to focus on fundamentals as doomsday scenarios are norm and are no more an unanticipated event', he said.

'This Christmas is early and if we do not see aggressive selling in the third week of December, the market should be looking brighter ahead!'

So what should investors do?

Take profit on trading positions, said Mr Wong of DMG.

For longer-term investors, here is some advice from Citi's Mr Villamin: 'Take the current rally to rebalance your portfolio. Relook your liquidity needs and take the opportunity to reallocate your assets so as to meet your long-term investment objectives. On a three- to five-year horizon, one can find value in the current market.'

NO Bonus

2008-12-09T08:06:00.002+08:00

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive John Mack told employees on Monday he would not get a bonus for a second straight year and announced compensation changes designed to more closely link pay with the bank's long-term performance.

Three weeks after Goldman Sachs and UBS executives announced plans to forgo bonuses, Mack in a memo said he and co-Presidents Walid Chammah and James Gorman will not receive bonuses this year. Mack also did not receive a bonus for last year, which was wrecked by nearly $10 billion of fourth-quarter trading losses.

"Our entire bonus pool will be down dramatically this year, reflecting the difficult market conditions, stock price performance and our full-year revenues in this challenging environment," Mack said in the memo.

Later Monday, CNBC reported that Merrill Lynch EO John Thain also asked that he not receive a 2008 bonus. A Wall Street Journal report had said he was seeking as much as $10 million for helping the giant brokerage avoid an even bigger crisis by selling to Bank of America

Cosco Double Bottom

2008-12-06T17:28:00.004+08:00

Technically, it looks like everyone who wanted to abandon ship has already done so, leading to an oversold condition in the counter. Price appear to be forming a possible double bottom, and perhaps a triple bottom.
While it’s early days, quarterly momentum has made a clear positive divergence with price, and appears poised to break out of resistance and its own moving average.

Twenty0ne-day RSI has broken out and is rising after a classic three-point positive divergence. The top of the double bottom provides resistance at 97 cents. A successful break would indicate a target of $1.24

Update: For some insight into China prospect:
https://www.dollardex.com/sg/investUT/pfiles/Market%20Focus%20China%20Nov.pdf
"While the Chinese economy has slowed more than expected, its economic fundamentals have remained intact. Strong retail sales figures showed that one of China’s central pillars of growth, domestic consumption, has so far helped cushion its economy against the slowdown in exports. Additionally, the government has already made a series of macro-economic policy adjustments which should ensure steady and sound economic development."

An expansive ZERO

2008-12-05T08:05:00.003+08:00

A widely expected U.S. cut later this month would take the target for the key federal funds rate to 0.5 per cent from 1 per cent.

The problem with zero is that it dashes market expectations, which are based not on existing rates but on their direction.

In fact, once nominal rates reach bottom, most people will base their lending and spending plans on the assumption the only direction rates can take is back up. So cutting all the way to the bottom might be counterproductive.

MRT too cramp?

2008-12-04T21:16:00.002+08:00

Wait till you see this!
A scene in London's Tube.

Obama called China a “currency manipulator”

2008-12-04T21:07:00.002+08:00

Got the following news from an UK publication.

Seems like the western developed nation is started to shift the blame to China.

Not surprising.

CHINA has begun to devalue the yuan for the first time in more than a decade, raising fears that it will set off a 1930sstyle race to the bottom and tip the global economy into an even deeper slump.

The central bank has shifted the central peg of its dollar band twice this week in a calculated move that suggests Beijing aims to offset the precipitous slide in Chinese manufacturing by trying to gain further export share abroad.

The futures markets are pricing in a 6pc devaluation over the next year. “This is clearly a big shift in policy and we are now on alert,” said Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York Mellon.

The move follows a speech by President Hu Jintao warning that China is “losing competitive edge in the world market”.

China has allowed a crawling 20pc revaluation over the past three years. Any reversal risks setting off conflict with the incoming team of PresidentElect Barack Obama in Washington. Mr Obama called China a “currency manipulator” during the campaign, a term that carries penalties under US trade law. Outgoing US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is viewed as a “friend of China”. He called for a stronger yuan this week before embarking on a visit to Beijing, but the plea was couched in friendly terms.

Hans Redeker, currency head at BNP Paribas, said that China’s policy switch could set off a dangerous chain of events. “If they play this beggar-thy-neighbour game, it will cause a deflationary shock The devaluation of the yuan being priced in by futures markets over the next year for the whole world,” he said.

It makes sense for countries with current account deficits such as the UK, US or Turkey to let their currencies fall, but China has the world’s biggest trade surplus.

Michael Pettis, a professor at Beijing University, said it was “very worrying” that a prodevaluation bloc seemed to be gaining the upper hand in the Communist Party. “We are on the brink of a very ugly period for trade relations,” he said. China has relied on exports to North America and Europe as its growth engine, making it acutely vulnerable to the contraction in global demand.

Prof Pettis said this recalls the role played by the US in the 1920s, a parallel fraught with danger. “In the 1930s, the US tried to dump capacity abroad, but the furious reaction of trading partners caused the strategy to misfire. China already seems to be in the process of engineering its own Smott-Hawley,” he said, referring to the infamous US Tariff Act in 1930.

China showed restraint during the Asian crisis in 1998, holding the line against domino devaluations. It may yet hold the line this time. However, this crisis is more serious. The manufacturing sector has seen the steepest decline since the records began. Civil unrest has begun to rock the Guangdong and Longnan regions.

Beijing has slashed rates and unveiled a fiscal stimulus of 14pc of GDP. However, most of the spending comes in the form of instructions to local governments to spend more – but without giving them the money.

On why market falling now!

2008-12-03T17:11:00.001+08:00

1. European shares declined in early trading
2. DJ Future plunging lower by -144 (sure die die)
3. Oil price slump again to $47
4. Infineon Technologies reported a wider quarterly loss and warned that first-quarter revenue will fall 30%.
5. YOU ARE PESSIMISTIC !

US and North Korea is the Same

2008-12-03T07:40:00.002+08:00

American likes to talk about free market.

They used to criticize third world countries’ governments for subsidizing their farmers, manufacturing sector and etc.

However, their privately own public listed company is like a crying baby asking the government to bail them out. Isn’t that violating the rules of free market?

Read these news today:
GM's stock first fell after the automaker said its sales plunged 41.3% in November. The automaker then presented its plan to return to profitability, saying it would require up to $18 billion in federal money.

And these:

Away from the Dow, Ford Motor Co. said its sales slumped 31% in November. It then asked for $9 billion to return to profitability by 2011.

They should let the market decide the fate of these automobile giants if they really appreciate the spirit of FREE MARKET!

Perhaps, it is time for Hongqi to replace Chevrolet and Ford car.

Another Bailout!

2008-12-02T18:43:00.000+08:00

Top UAW officials from across the country will meet in Detroit on Wednesday to consider key concessions in hopes of helping Detroit's automakers gain congressional approval of $25 billion in federal loans.

Automakers must submit plans to Congress today to show how they will use the loans. Ford Motor Co. planned to give Congress a clear picture of future, more-efficient models and General Motors Corp. readied a blueprint for cuts across the board.

UAW officials from Ford, GM and Chrysler LLC will meet Wednesday and later break off into meetings of representatives of the individual automakers.

One UAW local official who plans to attend expects the issues considered to include eliminating the jobs bank and further concessions in the way automakers fund the retiree health care trust.

Trading Strategic for Dark December

2008-12-01T20:51:00.003+08:00

Dark December
In the wake of the most volatile month in memory, investors are looking for the smartest strategies for December. http://www.marketwatch.com/newscommentary/tradingstrategies

U.S. stocks look to further recent gains in December

2008-12-01T05:36:00.001+08:00

Stocks will enter the month of December with a sense of optimism that much of the dismal environment for corporate profits has already been discounted by the market, even as upcoming reports, including the key jobs report on Friday, are expected to show the economic picture is still worsening.

Next week, "we'll have a slew of economic numbers, including what I expect to be a rise to 6.7% in unemployment in November," said Peter Cardillo, market economist at Avalon Partners.

However, "the market has already priced in another quarter or two of real bad economic news, and that things could start to stabilize in the second quarter" of next year, he said.

Dow's best 5-day gain ever

The market gained on so-called Black Friday, marking its fifth-straight session of gains, with grim prospects for retailers failing to dent optimism at the traditional start of the U.S. holiday-shopping season.

MarketWatch

Can Keppel Corp survive?

2008-11-29T14:54:00.002+08:00

Time is really bad for KepCorp.

Property division (Kepland & KepBay Reflection) is heading into property grand sales next years.

Infrastructure division has a badly injured victim, Kep T&T falling from sky (>$5) to hell (<$1) in just a month times. Reit division (K-Reit) is presenting unbelievable super yield of 15%.

SPC just reported a 99 per cent fall in quarterly net profit. (Not One 99 shop, ok?!)

Of course, the newest and heaviest blow is reserved to Kep O&M: TALK.

KEP O&M is by far the biggest asset own by KepCorp. The ‘talk’ to arrive at mutually acceptable contract arrangement is bad but not the worst.

In more optimistic perspective, the ‘talk’ may not end in simple cancellation. The current total order book of $12.5 billion shall be enough to safe KepCorp until 2012 when global credit crunch subdued.

KepCorp is hovering 10% dividend yield on last Friday closing. Good buy or good bye? I choose the former.

Bottoming markets? The data is piling up

2008-11-29T07:37:00.000+08:00

YOU never know when a market hits bottom until well after the fact, but there have been a series of hints over the past few weeks that stock market investors may be flirting with one.

For one thing, volatility is easing. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index , or VIX, is down about 8 per cent for the month and around 38 per cent below its 2008 peak hit last month.

A series of sentiment and flow indicators have also suggested this month that, while major investors remain very gloomy about the world around them, they are not getting much gloomier. On Thursday, Reuters asset allocation polls showed that, though leading investment houses continued to hold minimal levels of stocks in their portfolios, they had not reduced exposure this month.

The polls of 45 firms across the world showed equities rose a statistically insignificant 0.1 per cent month-on-month in an average balanced portfolio. Allocations were still well below the roughly 60 per cent long-term average for stocks, but they had levelled. This picture of gloomy- but-not-gloomier investors also emerged from other monthly surveys. State Street's investor confidence index for the month hit its lowest level in its more than 10-year history. But the month-on-month decline was a fraction of what was seen the previous month.

The custodian bank, which compiles its index from the buying and selling patterns of its clients, said that institutional investors were not reacting as strongly to deteriorating economic fundamentals as they had been.

'This month's readings provide a measure of relief,' index co-developer Ken Froot said.

Also gloomy, but with the odd shaft of light, was Merrill Lynch's monthly poll of some 180 fund managers across the world, released last Wednesday.

Although the poll showed investors currently believe the global economy is in recession and it is not going to come out of it for some time, there were signs of asset allocation shifts reflecting stronger risk appetite.

The percentage of fund managers who underweight equities dropped to 54 per cent from 62 per cent, for example, and a run on emerging market equities appeared to have levelled off with 30 per cent underweight versus 36 a month earlier.

Overall, Merrill's risk and liquidity indicator, drawn from the poll's findings, improved slightly. All this may be small beer, but it fits with an increasing number of investors who are arguing that, after falls of more than 50 per cent on many stock markets over the past 18 months, there are bargains out there.

Fortis Investments said this week that one of its tactical funds was moving back into equities and high-yield bonds in part because of value.

Templeton Asset Management's emerging markets funds are betting on a market recovery early next year, with MSCI's benchmark emerging market equity index having lost almost 60 per cent this year.

'Emerging markets have gone very far down and are now back to levels we saw in 2003. We think all these (government stimulus) programmes will start to have an impact in the early part of next year and then we will see a rebound,' said emerging markets guru and Templeton executive chairman Mark Mobius.

This siren song has been heard before, of course, and there is nothing to say that the signs of a levelling off and even renewed investor appetite will automatically lead to an eventual bounce in equities.

The bear market that began last year has already had a number of bounces, including a more than 20 per cent rise between the end of October and beginning of November for the MSCI all-country world stock index .

As analysts point out, bottoming out after steep market falls is a process rather than a specific event. Although in retrospect a bottom price can be identified, it tends not to be spotted at the time. From a process standpoint, the bottom of the last bear market, in 2002-3, came over a roughly five-month period. -- Reuters

Upside in China property S-chips? BT

2008-11-28T07:43:00.000+08:00

WHILE most Singapore property developers are afflicted by the same predicament - over-supply, low confidence - the Chinese property market is as varied as its landscape.

Take property S-chip CentraLand for example.

Listed here in February, the price of Centra- Land shares at IPO is likely to have priced-in various poor economic data at the time. Even so, its IPO offer price of 50 cents has fallen only 4 per cent since, while share prices of most Singapore-based property developers are more likely to have fallen upwards of 60 per cent.

For the third quarter of 2008, revenue amounted to about 277.4 million yuan (S$62.1 million), recognised from delivery to buyers of 997 units of pre-sold retail and office units in its commercial property project, J-Expo in Zhengzhou.

Located in the Henan province, J-Expo is a wholesale commodities building in the heart of Zhengzhou city, located at the junction of the main road and rail network in central China. In a filing with SGX, CentraLand said Zhengzhou city enjoys good traffic and is an important wholesale centre, especially for women's apparel.

Not many would know this about Zhengzhou, much less know where it is. This being so, CentraLand, which is probably considered more 'exotic' compared to other China property S-chips, is not heavily traded.

Less exotic property S-chips like Yanlord, China New Town Development (CNTD) and Sunshine Holdings are traded more heavily. Their share prices have also fallen dramatically, in line with market movements.

Indeed, since the start of the year, Yanlord, CNTD and Sunshine share prices have fallen 80 per cent, 95 per cent and 92 per cent respectively to very low penny values.

But the paradox is that unlike Singapore (and much of the world) some markets in China, where some of these S-chips have projects, are actually seeing property prices recovering.

Citigroup analysts visiting numerous cities made several conclusions recently. They noted that inner cities like Chongqing and Chengdu looked less affected by the export slowdown and global financial crisis, as their economies are more domestic trade oriented.

In Chengdu, Citigroup added that activity has recovered slightly from the period immediately after the earthquake, but more importantly, it also sees a meaningful difference in terms of sales volume and prices versus the period before the earthquake.

Citigroup did not, however, notice meaningful rebounds in transaction prices and volumes in Shenzhen or Guangzhou, 'and the market is still clouded with the wait-and-see attitude of the potential buyers'.

Citigroup said that in Hangzhou, the provincial capital of Zhejiang province, the situation has been deteriorating, adding: 'As one of China's main export and manufacturing driven provinces, Zhejiang has been significantly impacted by the export slowdown and global financial crisis.'

On the other hand, Citigroup considers Shanghai as one of the most resilient in China, especially for projects located in prime locations. 'We don't see any significant price cuts in the high-end/luxury-end residential projects,' it said, adding that in the past two years, there has also been limited new land supplies in the city centre.

Different Chinese cities also appear to have different property cycles. DTZ Research reveals that property prices in Shanghai peaked at the end of 2005 and then plummeted for a year before rising steadily since the end of 2006.

DTZ's Shanghai property price index rose 40 per cent in Q3 2008 compared with the previous trough in Q4 2006. Prices continued to increased by 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2008 and 5.2 per cent compared with Q4 2007.

In Guangzhou and Shenzhen, however, property prices only peaked in Q4 and Q3 of 2007 respectively. While prices have recovered somewhat in Guangzhou - with the DTZ price index rising 2 per cent since the previous trough - Shenzhen prices have fallen 16 per cent since Q3 2007.

More interestingly, Beijing prices have been increasing for four years, registering an 8.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 2008.

Each city appears to react to different micro-economic factors like land scarcity, high levels of speculation, or even the efficiency of local governments to implement policy changes (curiously, the Chinese government's relaxation on mortgage lending in October has not had an impact on share prices).

As such, finding value in the Chinese property market takes a lot of work. But at the same time, it should help to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Reits treading warily in market minefield - BT

2008-11-28T07:27:00.001+08:00

The latest earnings season has been a chilly one for real estate investment trusts (Reits) hit by the credit crunch and a cooling property market.

Many Reits are working to shore up confidence in their credit positions. Property acquisitions are virtually off the table while industry watchers are divided on whether consolidation within the sector is on the cards.

'Reits are definitely paying more attention to financing,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee. The research house estimates that the sector has at least $4.5 billion up for refinancing in 2009 alone. With credit tightening and spreads widening, the market is watching closely for signs of trouble.

According to a CIMB-GK report, borrowing spreads for Reits have risen from an average of 150 basis points (bps) to 200-300 bps for three-year loans in the last six months.

'While average all-in cost of debt for most Reits has been contained within 4 per cent thus far . . . we expect the all-in cost for those with significant refinancing due in 2009 to rise,' said associate vice-president of research Janice Ding.

Reits have tried to soothe market anxiety in the past few weeks by releasing more details on debt. Ascendas Reit (A-Reit), for instance, won confidence votes when it said it had secured firm commitment of $200 million to help refinance a $300 million loan due in August next year.

Suntec Reit also made it a priority to refinance a $700 million loan due in December 2009. 'Whilst we have no major financing needs in the next 12 months, we are keenly aware of the liquidity crunch,' said the Reit manager's CEO Yeo See Kiat last month.

Reits also have to worry about asset devaluation as the slowing economy weighs down on rents and occupancies. Lower property values would raise gearing ratios. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) booked a revaluation loss of $83.5 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30.

Reits have pushed asset acquisition plans to the bottom of the agenda. Even organic growth has slowed. Suntec Reit shelved redevelopment plans for Park Mall. CapitaMall Trust also held back enhancement plans for three malls because of high construction costs.

'We will review new commitments carefully and will not sacrifice our liquidity,' said the Reit manager's chairman Hsuan Owyang last month.

Analysts advise investors to be selective. While low unit prices have boosted yields, it would help to 'pay extra attention to (Reits') refinancing profile, especially the quantum of short-term debt due within the next six to nine months,' said DMG's Mr Lee in a note. 'We like S-Reits with strong sponsors (and) excellent track record.'

CIMB-GK's Ms Ding added: 'The presence of strong sponsors and government-linked sponsors is advantageous at this juncture.'

FCOT, for instance, managed to take a $70 million loan from parent company Fraser and Neave last week to repay debt. The trust is in talks to refinance the $70 million loan and all debt maturing next year. In response, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services took FCOT off 'CreditWatch' status and said that the outlook is stable.

ARA Asset Management Group CEO John Lim believes that consolidation in the sector seems unlikely because Reits would be more concerned about their own refinancing and asset valuation issues.

CIMB-GK's Ms Ding said that in today's market, it would be difficult 'for any single entity to have enough funds to buy over the entire (Reit) unless it's a distressed sale'.

But an industry observer believes that consolidation could happen because the sinking tide has left some Reits looking weaker than their peers. To avoid coughing up cash, a potential acquirer can offer units in itself to the target Reit, he added.

High Note 5 victims advertising?

2008-11-26T22:53:00.004+08:00

I am very surprise to see a High Note 5 related advertisement on my weblog.

As the advertisement read: Were you misled about the safety of your investment? Contact us.

Someone is coming out with cost to advertise on Adsense now. The exercise may gain more momentum soon with the victims started to group.

Teller to actively promote bank products and services

2008-11-25T16:17:00.002+08:00

The Minibond saga is still hot and Hong Lim is still crowded. Part of the issues is allegation of misrepresentation and mis-selling by below qualified banking personnel to unsuitable group of customers.

I am not surprise to read in Singapore Salary Handbook by Kelly Services the following:

The text:
Position: Bank Teller

Job Description:
Handle high volume of over-the-counter transactions. Assist with customer enquiries, ensure service delivery standards are met & actively promote bank products and services.

The products and services could include Minibond? ILP? Endowment Plan? Insurance?

Guess what is the qualification required for them to discharge the duty to ACTIVELY PROMOTE BANK PRODUCTS AND SERVICES?

‘N’ levels with CO S / ’O’ levels

Maximum salary is $1,900

Otto Marine IPO

2008-11-25T11:53:00.002+08:00

If you want to know how tough is the current IPO market, look no further then Singapore market.

We have not seen any new IPO for about 2 months since the last. Whereas last year we may have 2 or even 3 IPOs running concurrently.

The latest IPO on hand is Otto Marine launches IPO at 51 cents apiece. They are an offshore marine group engaged in shipbuilding, ship repair and conversion and ship chartering.

If they launch their IPO one year ago, their share will be selling like hot cake, but no now. Instead, no one will bother to write a letter to newspaper forum to complaint that there are only 1 million shares for public offer out of total 235.3 million.

The application period is short, just 4 days.

My perception is that they do not even bother about the public response. The issuer probably has factored in lukewarm response.

Now, look at the history.

In last IPO, China Kunda has launched at 21.5 cent apiece and maintained the share price above water consistently throughout the most volatile month in near term history. China Kunda last traded at 24 cents now. Impressive despite the lack of liquidity (but with close spread).

The possibilities of share price ‘intervention’ by interested parties are high. The chance that Otto Marine to repeat the performance of China Kunda is relatively high.

Company website: http://www.ottomarine.com/

STI Wave Count

2008-11-25T08:23:00.005+08:00

The research report from DMG Research is very interesting in providing an overall outlook of STI in coming months.

STI closed at 1620 points yesterday and today may bounce up to test 1700 points resistance due to strong gain in U.S. market overnight.

For STI to hit 1391 points on January 2009, a further cut of 300 points in December 2008 alone is required. This represent a potential plunge of 17%.

Not impossible. We probably have to postpone the Christmas shopping spree to Chinese New Year!

Citi survives, now the world can sleep

2008-11-25T07:19:00.003+08:00

The title is from breakingviews.com and I think the editor is humorous to link the latest development with Citi famous advertisement slogan.

Citi is paying 8 per cent dividend on US$20b of capital the U.S. government injected in the form of preferred shares. The housing loan board rate is about 4% in Singapore. How do they make profit from -4% gross returns from every loan dished out?

My formula is likely inaccurate, but, the cost of doing business by Citi is definately increasing.

The editor is quick to highlight that it isn't absolutely clear that Citi is out of the woods. As AIG has to come back for second time for rescue package, Citi may repeat it also.

As highlighted, the rescue doesn't address the diffuse concerns that the bank is either unmanageable or badly managed.

Latest: US to rescue Citigroup!

2008-11-24T13:44:00.000+08:00

The U.S. government agreed Sunday night to rescue Citigroup Inc. with a plan that includes a $20 billion capital infusion and guarantees for up to $300 billion of Citi's troubled assets, according to media reports.

By MarketWatch
Last update: 12:34 a.m. EST Nov. 24, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Citi-US-bailout-talks-reports/story.aspx?guid=%7B15A026EC%2DCEA0%2D4C82%2D92EC%2D199B794F0968%7D

Rally have no legs: It is a ghost?!~

2008-11-24T09:02:00.002+08:00

If you still wondering why a rally of close to 500 points last Friday at Dow Jones has no impact to Asia markets, then you have not read/hear/watch any printed media/radio/TV this morning.

Here is three lines for you from ST today:

Any Asian rally today likely to be short-lived with sentiment still fragile amid tensions

Regional markets will enjoy an obligatory knee-jerk rise today and give them another opportunity to get rid of their stocks at a higher price.

Few traders expect the stock market rally to have legs.

Tan Kin Lian for public office Petition

2008-11-24T06:52:00.000+08:00

We need a man to check and countercheck the system.
Tan Kin Lian for public office Petition

Poisonous Investment - Dividend Yield Play?

2008-11-22T13:20:00.003+08:00

Sad to say, but have to admit that in last one year, yield-play stock is one of the most poisonous and dangerous investment.

The market is volatile and spiral downward for the last one year. Even though there is no one sector being spare in this downturn, however, the temptation of high dividend yield has attract sizeable group of passive investor to join the massacre.

This is very true to REIT and shipping trusts in Singapore.

The minibond investors have risked full invested amount for potential 5% return.
The REIT and business trust is looking at the potential payout of 30.8% (MI-REIT) and 45% (FSL Trust) among the highest.

If the return is commeasurable with the risk, and vice versa, then, we may be waiting for another round of saga.

Cash: Is it really king?

2008-11-22T08:18:00.000+08:00

WHEN there is extreme uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, investors become unsure about where to park their funds. So holding cash may seem the safest option. But is cash really as safe an option as it seems - even now when a global recession is looming and asset prices are falling? The answer depends, among other things, on your risk appetite and investment horizon.

Before we delve into the topic, it is important to highlight that holding cash is not a risk-free option, especially when inflation runs ahead of interest rates.

In Singapore, for example, the annualised inflation rate in September was 6.7 per cent - substantially higher than fixed- deposit rates, which range from less than 0.5 per cent to less than 2 per cent, depending on the tenor.

Even at next year's officially projected inflation rate of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent, real interest rates - that is, the difference between deposit rates and the inflation rate - would still be negative. So those holding cash will still suffer wealth erosion.

So are you be better off investing your cash, given that equity markets seem more attractive after the recent huge correction? Our take is that investors should not let their guard down just yet - the outlook is still fraught with uncertainty.

Obviously, equity markets have come off very sharply. The MSCI World Index, for example, has sunk more than 40 per cent this year. In Asia, the correction in some markets has been even more pronounced, with bourses like China having declined more 60 per cent this year.

The sell-off has made markets less pricey, with forward price/earnings multiples now in the low teens or even at single-digit levels. Consequently, investors may find it tempting to go head-long into equities. However, this may not be the best strategy - and there are good reasons to stay cautious right now.

True, fears of the global banking system collapsing have eased and credit markets have shown signs of improvement. However, the situation is far from normal and it could take several months if not years before 'order' is restored.

Banks will need time to recover substantial losses and recapitalise their balance sheets. Hence, they are likely to stay cautious and may not resume normal lending any time soon.

We are already starting to see signs of forced selling and de-leveraging in the US$2 trillion global hedge fund industry. As funds' returns suffer, investors are pulling out money, while banks and prime brokers are cutting their leverage and demanding more collateral. As a result, hedge funds are forced to sell off assets to cover redemptions and meet margin calls.

In the US, the housing slump is hardly over. Home prices there are still falling and the rate of mortgage foreclosure is expected to rise in the coming months, especially when adjustable-rate mortgages are reset. Over the next two years, ratings agency Fitch has estimated that a sizeable US$96 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages will be reset higher.

Companies will also continue to unwind their debt holdings and investments, bought with the help of borrowed money, which will further drag down the market prices of many assets, including equities, causing yet more losses for investors.

Even if the central bank rescue efforts help calm conditions in credit markets and the nerves of jittery investors, this may not be enough to prevent a drawn-out global recession. Also, the write-downs may not be over. Global financial institutions may need to make more provisions as the value of assets on their balance sheets could diminish further and losses will be realised if these assets are sold at current market value. Given the risk of a deep and protracted recession, corporate earnings forecasts for next year, which appear to be too optimistic, may miss the mark in coming quarters, and this is another factor that could weigh on equity markets as profit estimates are cut. Given the risk of further downside, those who are looking to bargain-hunt at this time must have a strong risk appetite and a long-term investment horizon, as equity markets are likely to remain volatile and full recovery may not take place for several months at least.

Anyone looking to buy now should also spread their investments out over the next few months, instead of trying to time the markets. Time diversification aside, investors should also stay diversified across asset classes to protect against downside. It is especially important at this time not to get carried away with specific themes - no matter how appealing they may seem - and over-invest in them.

Despite the current turbulence, equities are still a good long-term bet and markets in Asia and emerging regions should resume their uptrend once the dust settles. However, this does not mean you should plough all your investments into equities. Instead, work out a suitable asset allocation strategy based on your risk appetite and long-term goals. If you're not sure how to do this, seek the help of a qualified financial adviser.

Staying largely in cash for now may seem like a good option if you are convinced that markets have not bottomed. But buying at the bottom is also near to impossible - so if you are afraid of missing the boat, then go ahead and nibble.

Investments are necessary to grow your wealth. Staying in cash for too long is clearly not a long-term option, because the negative real return will erode your wealth and leave you worse off in your golden years. Investments are still a good way to growing your wealth and the current turmoil in markets will throw up attractive opportunities for those with the risk appetite and the foresight to look beyond the current crisis.

Vasu Menon is vice-president, group wealth management, OCBC Bank

Latest Development: Market, Not Fish Market

2008-11-21T13:37:00.001+08:00

The fact that U.S. stocks have nose-dived into lowest level in more than 11 years is good reason to expect some form of rebound.

It is not likely that U.S. Congress will ignore automakers when they have generously come out with close to trillion dollars to rescue financiers.

The good news now is that: There is no un-known bad news.

The Asian markets have plunged for a ninth straight session and that shall bring out reasonable number of bargain hunters, and, that include MYSELF.

Nonetheless, bottom fishing shall be progressive. Use cash which can be spared for at least 5 years ONLY.

Commodity stocks suffer losses for a second day - BT

2008-11-20T07:20:00.002+08:00

Straits Asia, Noble and Olam plunge more than 12%; key commodities index falls sharply

MAJOR commodity-related stocks here were pummelled for a second day yesterday as investors fretted over slowing economic growth and falling demand worldwide for energy, metals and agricultural resources.

Shares in Straits Asia Resources, which owns two coal mines in Indonesia, plunged 14.5 cents or 19.3 per cent to 60.5 cents, extending its two-day loss to 25.3 per cent.

Chief executive Richard Ong bought one million shares in the open market at an average price of 67.6 cents yesterday, raising his direct stake in the company to 0.592 per cent from 0.501 per cent, according to a Singapore Exchange exchange filing. Straits Asia's shares have slumped 80.6 per cent this year.

Olam International, which supplies agricultural commodities worldwide, saw its shares fall 12.3 per cent to 93 cents, extending its loss since Monday's close to 23.8 per cent. Since the start of the year, its shares have fallen 66.9 per cent.

Shares of Hong Kong-based Noble Group, which manages the global supply chains of various raw materials in food, energy and metals, fell 14.9 per cent to 74 cents, down 23.3 per cent in the past two days. The shares are off 63.5 per cent this year.

In a report yesterday, Credit Suisse analyst Haider Ali cut his target price for Straits Asia to $1.20 from $1.25, while keeping his 'neutral' rating on the stock, citing lower estimates of coal production in the next two years due to a delay at one of its mines.

And earlier this week, Merrill Lynch downgraded its rating on Olam to 'underperform' from 'neutral' and slashed its target price for the stock to $1 from $2.60, after Olam's management said it would cut the proportion of debt on its balance sheet.

This means Olam's aggressive pace of growth in recent years will have to slow, said Merrill Lynch analyst Chong Han Lim. 'By our estimates, the reduced gearing would lower sales-generating potential 30-40 per cent. The revision appears voluntary, but the company is probably making the announcement ahead of the inevitable - bankers tightening lending standards.'

Prices across a broad range of commodities have been hurt badly by a severe deterioration in the global economic outlook, which has triggered fears among investors that the earnings of companies such as Noble and Olam will suffer.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a global benchmark for commodity prices, fell on Tuesday to its lowest close since Sept 26, 2003. The index, which tracks 19 commodities including aluminium, crude oil, gold and soya beans, has collapsed almost 50 per cent from its all-time peak on July 2 this year, as the financial crisis wreaked havoc on the world's biggest economies.

Physical trade of commodities has also been damaged by the seizing up of credit markets, with firms finding it harder and more expensive to get letters of credit - a common method of payment for goods in international trade - as banks shy away from guaranteeing payments.

International trade is expected to slump 2.5 per cent next year, the first decline since 1982, hurt by shrinking demand and a sharp contraction in trade finance, the World Bank warned last week.

On why Straits Asia Resources is shorting target

2008-11-19T13:01:00.004+08:00

Can't even type the important date probably.......

Quote from the announcement:

The second paragraph of the notice referred to “27 November 2008” which was a typographical error. The date is 28 November 2008, as stated in the separate announcement relating specifically to books closure, also issued yesterday.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_532C29E5C8C348204825750100232741/$file/081114_Clarification_of_Books_Closure_Date.pdf?openelement

Okay, just rumbling. However, it is really hardly find good reason for today's sell down.

Any?

Town council explains investment

2008-11-19T08:19:00.000+08:00

TANJONG Pagar town council said yesterday that it did not buy any Lehman Brother bonds directly but that one of its fund managers, Lion Global Invest, bought $250,000 of Lehman bonds.
This translates to 0.14 per cent of the council's $179 million sinking fund.

The disclosure comes after Parliament heard on Tuesday that Holland-Bukit Panjang and Pasir Ris-Punggol town councils invested a total of $12 million in DBS High Notes, Lehman Brothers Minibond Notes and Merrill Lynch's Jubilee Series 3.

Six other councils, including Tanjong Pagar, reportedly invested a total of $4 million in Lehman Brothers via portfolios.

Tanjong Pagar town council said yesterday that it is in a strong financial position and takes a prudent approach with council funds. Some 22 per cent of its sinking fund is handled by fund managers, but the bulk of its investments are in fixed deposits and government and statutory board bonds.

Its fund managers were given a mandate to invest over a three-year period, and funds are regularly reviewed by the town council, though the portfolio mix is left to the fund managers' discretion, the town council said.

Home Buyer: I will be back!

2008-11-18T07:34:00.002+08:00

About 50 homebuyers walked away from deals in October
BizTimes 18 Nov 08

The number of private homes returned to developers shot up last month on the back of a sharp dive in confidence due to the stockmarket crash.

Homebuyers returned 50-odd units to developers in October, compared with 10-plus units each in the preceding month and in October last year. The figures were estimated by BT from statistics on developers' sales released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday. The figures exclude executive condos.

October also saw developers launching and selling the lowest number of private homes since URA started making monthly housing sales data available in June last year. Developers sold 112 private homes in October, down about 70 per cent from 376 units in the preceding month and 80 per cent below the 566 units sold in October last year. The 159 private homes developers launched last month was also 79 per cent lower than September and 75 per cent below that in the same year-ago period.

Buyers who returned the 50-plus units last month probably did so before the options were due to be exercised, industry observers reckon. Buyers who walk away from a deal before the option is exercised forfeit a quarter of the 5 per cent option fee, equivalent to 1.25 per cent of the purchase price of the unit.

'The stock market was at its worst in October. So some buyers may have got jittery and decided it was better to forego 1.25 per cent of the purchase price - that's $12,500 for a $1 million property purchase - than to be saddled with uncertainty. They worry that property prices may drop much further in the next six months. So it's a matter of weighing risks, even for people who can afford to take the hit,' said a seasoned property agent.

Another industry observer said another factor for the forfeitures could be if buyers failed to secure the required quantum of housing loan from banks, which have become more cautious in lending. 'Some buyers may also have observed developers trimming prices and got cold feet,' he added.

On a brighter note, he does not expect the number of units returned to developers to keep rising in the months ahead. 'Anybody who buys now must have done his homework. Things are a lot clearer now.'

Agreeing, DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah said: 'October was an exceptional month with so much stockmarket turmoil and fear all around. Hopefully, we won't get a repeat of this. People will be much more considered when buying homes henceforth and therefore the number of units returned should revert to a more normal situation.'

October saw a total of 14 units returned at Concourse Skyline at Beach Road, 11 units at The Peak @ Balmeg in the Pasir Panjang area and five units each at Silversea at Amber Road, Tresalveo at Marymount Terrace and VIVA at Thomson Road/Suffolk Walk. Nonetheless, all these projects still saw units being sold in October.

CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said, based on transacted prices, prices have 'remained fairly stable for the past two months, with due consideration that factors such as floor height, orientation and liveable space affect prices'.

'However, it is very likely that the persistent thin volume will have a downward effect on prices. The sluggish sales momentum is likely to remain for the rest of the year as macro factors such as the economic recession and retrenchment will erode consumer confidence,' CBRE's executive director Li Hiaw Ho added. He predicts Q4 may see sales volume of around 500 units, a level last seen in Q1 2003.

Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak said that homebuying sentiment is expected to weaken in the face of economic and job market uncertainties. 'Launches are expected to be held back till at least after Chinese New Year 2009,' he added. The lowest-priced apartment/condo sold in October was a unit at The Linear ($554 psf) while the highest-priced unit was an apartment at Orchard Scotts ($2,407 psf).

Savills Singapore's Ku Swee Yong noted that despite a weak month, The Lakeshore in Jurong and Hillvista in the Hillview area crossed $1,000 psf. The $2,169 psf of land area achieved at Sandy Island on Sentosa Cove is probably the highest price for a landed home in Singapore, he added.

Around 63 per cent of the 112 units sold in October were in Outside Central Region. However, in terms of the 159 units launched in the month, the lion's share (46.5 per cent) were in the Core Central Region.

Edge Hot Stock - Surprising signs of resilience

2008-11-15T20:52:00.002+08:00

The Edge- 16 November 2008
Property counters were among the first sectors to peak and turn down in June 2007. While few believe that the bear market could possibly have come to an end, some signs are emerging that selected counters could be gaining strength against the sector and the market. Strangely, the stocks are not among the top picks by analysis.

Capitaland was recently downgraded by several analysts, yet the stock is showing signs of superior relative strength. Wheelock Properties is the other counter that has strengthened against the market.

Capitaland – Attempting to bottom

City Development – No change in direction yet

Keppel Land – Still weak

Guocoland – Rate of decline slows

United Overseas Land – Early signs of a base formation

Wheelock Properties – Attempting to form a base

The Edge - Stimulus from China

2008-11-15T16:00:00.003+08:00

US is first world country.
China is third world country.

US has to spare no effort to approve the $700 Billion bail out plan to restore confidence in the volatile investment market.

However, China has rolled out $586 billion stimulus package like just a small change. China do not need bail out fund too.

The centric of the financial world may be tilting after the crisis.

Let's see.

Warren Buffett is human too

2008-11-15T09:50:00.003+08:00

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell below $100,000 a share for the first time since 2006, dropping for a fourth straight day after posting a 77% profit decline on Nov. 7.

Berkshire slipped US$6,283, or 6.1%, to US$97,050 at 12:40 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The Omaha, Neb.-based firm’s shares are down about 32% this year.

Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on investment losses and falling returns at insurance businesses.

October’s slump in debt and stock markets reduced the value of Berkshire’s holdings and derivative contracts and caused shareholders’ equity to fall by about $9-billion during the month. “There have been larger declines in the rest of the insurance industry, and Berkshire isn’t immune to that,” said Bill Bergman, an analyst for Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. Bloomberg News

Half Price Condominium For Sale

2008-11-15T01:36:00.000+08:00

Who want to do a year end shopping for half the price condominium? You may do it this weekend in River Valley.

I read with interest the news that the price of condominium is plunging fast and the transaction volume is shrinking. The fact that luxury condominium Luma is going to be relaunched this weekend with about 50% discounts to last year $2,800 psf price tag is shocking.

When the market is red hot last year, the so call market expert is predicting that price is going to go up another thousand dollar psf. This is not dissimilar like analyst predicting that crude oil price will hit $300 per barrel when it hit $140 at peak. Crude oil is selling in less then $60 now.

Who need an expert now?