They have mistaken or misprint the % Change (YTD) for Sembcorp Marine as -100%.

For a stock closed at $4.04 at 31 December 2007, it have to drop $4.04 to ZERO in order to get YTD change of 100%. However, the lowest price a share can plunged is floor at half a cent.

The actual YTD change is -5.9%. Pretty small compare to STI overall.

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Published @ The Strait Times 30 August 2008 (Pictures are difference)

Well-matched outfits
Does not have to be expensive but should be made of good material, co-ordinated and fitting. Favourite brands are Brooks Brothers, Massimo Dutti (suit, right), Versace, Nina Ricci and Raoul

Massimo Dutti is a clothing retail chain with about 397 stores in more than 29 countries.

Minimal make-up
Regular facials, a great complexion and a natural look works best. Just sheer powder, earth-tone lipstick and blusher will do

Branded Bags
Handbags that match one’s togs, with clasps that show some class. Favourite brands: Gucci, Louis Vuitton and Ferragamo.

Twinkly cufflinks
Starched shirts must be finished with cufflinks from Dunhill, Brooks Brothers or Raoul. The colour of the belt and shoes – preferably polished and dark-coloured without scruff marks- must match

Locked cellphone
Classy mobile phones with all their clients’ precious numbers stored on it and a lock function in case the phone is ever lost or – worse – stolen by a rival. BlackBerrys are banned by certain banks, as this could compromise client confidentiality. Some models: Nokia N78, Vertu Monogram, LG Prada, Motorola Q9h6.

Dependable, not flashy, car
A good car but no ostentations sports cars like Ferraris. Safe bets are the BMW 5 series and Lexus IS250.

Elegant accessorizing
Discreet diamond or pearl necklaces for women, hign-end watches from Patek Philippe and Hublot for the man

Leader writing pad and case
Leader writing pad and case (Yves Saint Laurent laptop case) to hold documents and investment presentations. Don’t forget a calculator.

Mont Blanc fountain pen
Signatures should be scrawled only with a fountain pen, no less, say some bankers from the great Swiss private banking tradition

Clean teeth
Last but not least, wear a smile all the time.

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There is no prize for guessing correctly who is in the spot light this week: The group President and CEO of SembCorp Industry, Mr. Tang Kin Fei.

It is in the bear market that people start to re-examine the blue chips as safe harbour.

Powering Ahead!

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DENTED by a bad debt provision of 139.5 million yuan, Bio-Treat Technology said yesterday its net profit for the full year ended June 30 slumped 62 per cent to 125.43 million yuan (S$26 million).

The fall came as revenue also slid 11.6 per cent to 1.41 billion yuan, mainly because of fewer turnkey projects, resulting in a 19 per cent decline in revenue from its wastewater treatment services to 1.1 billion yuan. At the same time, administrative costs, tax expenses and other operating costs - of which bad debt provisions were a part - rose.

Earnings per share fell to 0.14 yuan from 0.37 yuan.


Bio-Treat explained there were fewer turnkey projects in the fiscal year because of slower business activities and longer credit cycles in China.

The group will continue its practice of cherry-picking quality wastewater treatment projects while avoiding long credit periods and minimising its risk exposure, Bio-Treat said in a release. It will also seek out suitable strategic partners in developing new businesses.

'Bio-Treat's sound business fundamentals have mitigated the effects of difficult market conditions to post a reasonable set of results,' Bio-Treat chief executive Dennis Chan said. The group expects to stay profitable in fiscal 2009.

He added that the group will continue to focus on renewing its business model, including reducing its reliance on turnkey projects and growing its build-operate-transfer (BOT) and transfer-operate-transfer (TOT) segment.

Higher water tariffs from BOT and TOT projects in the near future is expected to cushion some of the group's cost pressures and improve operating margins, he said.

In a separate filing with SGX, Bio-Treat said it has received notices from Morley Fund Management, Highbridge Asia Opportunities Master Fund, Highbridge International and Citigroup Global Markets, each claiming that the group failed to redeem the full amount of bonds that were put to the company on Jan 18.

The financial houses said this constitutes an event of default which entitles them to accelerate the bonds held by them, making them immediately due and payable. They stated that they held bonds with a total face value of $23 million.

In response, Bio-Treat said it is seeking legal advice.

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With the advice from its independent financial adviser, JAPAN Land has urged its shareholders to reject the takeover offer by tycoon Oei Hong Leong as 'there are insufficient compelling reasons to accept the offers and the options proposal'.
Based on the report, the evaluation of the offer seems to focus on the NTA and revalued NTA.

Current audited NTA per share is 56 cents as at March 31.

NTA is 66 cents per share when factoring in gains from the sale of a 48% stake in KHC Ltd which was completed in April.

Estimated NTA is 72 cents per share if the share swap between its 14.13% associate Japan Asia Holdings Japan (JAHJ) and Jasdaq-listed ATL Systems goes through.


Revalued NTA of 69-71 cents per share if TSE trades at 14.79 times PE upon listing (if it listing go throught)

Revalued NTA per share of 72-76 cents if TSE trades at higher PE of 26.98 times.

What Oei put on table is 60 cents per share. Do not bite, shareholders are advised!

The job of the advisor is much easier then general perception if the scope of work is just to sum up the NTA figure and do the arithmetic calculation to derive the conclusion.

The fact that Japan Land is trading below 60 cents prior to the cash offer and rumors is ignored.

The fact that a lot of company in stock exchange trading below NTA is ignored.

The fact that the market valuation is getting cheaper since the offer is made is ignored.

The business prospect and challenge of Japan Land is ignored.

When the offered expired or lapsed, we will probably see how Japan Land cross the 60 cents marks again.

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In bear market.

Catalist listed Tritech has been reported won a $1.77 million study award from JTC Corporation to study possible economic uses for Singapore's underground rock caverns (URCs), which could range from power stations and wafer fabs to research and development labs, airport logistics centres and water reclamation facilities.


Tritech has just been listed last week. Albeit the contract value is small compare to multiple hundred million contract from Kepcorp/SembCorp Marine, the contract value still significant in relation to their market capitalisation.

However, the response of the market is 'ZERO' trading volume.

If I am the majority shareholder of Tritech, I would rather let the share price slumped after the news confirmation instead of facing zero market interest.

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IPO dry-up
Trading volume dry-up
Speculation dry-up

Avoid any IPO until sentiment improve.....


It will be hard to find another bargain to make quick bucks like Kercana in this type of market.

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Personally I subscribed to the idea that a true bottom is formed when capitulation take place.

Let have a look at the defination of caputulation in investopedia again:

Military term. Capitulation refers to surrendering or giving up.

In the stock market, capitulation is associated with "giving up" any previous gains in stock price as investors sell equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.

After capitulation selling, it is thought that there are great bargains to be had. The belief is that everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom.


We do not have 'extremely high volume' and 'sharp declines' now. Instead, we have a slow and steady plunge with trading volume almost dry-up.

To quote a word from Brother 7s: DJ is overbought, STI is oversold. Until both are extremely oversold, all, include the hardcore value/longterm investor is giving up, we are not going to have a solid bottom.

Meanwhile, just try to avoid falling into bear rally by controlling our greed.

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U.S. stocks fell the most in a month as a Kansas bank's failure and speculation American International Group Inc. will post a loss heightened concern that credit writedowns will keep rattling the financial system

For STI, technically, there is no sign of a trend reversal from the downtrend in near term. In ADX, DI- is widely space above DI+. With DI- looks like cutting down and ADX line moving up, STI might be bottoming up around the 2700 level. MACD still in negative region and no sign of convergence detected. RSI and Stochastic still unable to move up above the 30% and 20% level respectively indicating the market lack strength for rebound.


Today, STI look set to break 2700 psychological support level.

God bless STI!

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The previous list of best bargain is one to two months old now.

CIMB has released their list of top pick on 21 August 2008. Their choices are mainly yield stocks and those with bombed-out beta bets.

The favourite sectors are financial, offshore & marine, S-REITs and media. Sectors to avoid are plantations, transport and tech.


1. AREIT
2. City Devt
3. SembCorp Marine
4. SGX
5. SPH
6. Swiber
7. Tat Hong
8. UOB
9. Wheelock

The previous top picks from varios analysts and broking house is as follow. There are some consensus found among the lists.

Resilient Singapore Sevens
OCBC Investment Research dated 24 July 2008
ST Engineering
StarHub
Noble
Suntec REIT
SPH
Sino-Environment
Micro Mechanics

Top S-Chip Picks
CIMB-GK dated 18 July 2008
Celestial
China Zaino
FerroChina
China Sky
FibreChem
Sino Techfibre

Top picks of the highest-dividend stocks
CIMB-GK dated 7 July 2008
ART
Rotary
SPH
Areit
Cerebos

3Q08 Small Cap Stock Strategy and Stock Picks
DBS Group Research dated 24 June 2008
China Sky
KS Energy
Parkway Life Reit
Rickmers Maritime
Swiber

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This is the verdict on second set of hot stocks from The Edge after just one week. When STI and S-Chip continue their fall, they are some bright spot in offshore plays showing the resilent nature of their performance: SembCorp Marine.

Here is the verdit:

Sinking Feeling for Offshore Plays


SembCorp Marine – Momentum Breaks Down
$3.77 to $3.90

Cosco Corp – No Bottom Yet
$2.28 to $2.12

Keppel Corp – Set for Decline
$10.28 to $10.28

YangZiJiang Shipbuilding – Support Gives Way
$0.635 to $0.605

SembCorp – Testing Support
$4.28 to $4.24

Jaya Holdings – Poised for Breakdown
$1.36 to $1.24

The plunge of offshore play is lesser then 1% over one week. SembCorp Marine has offset the down fall of other offshore plays. It is wiser to stick to 'local' offshore plays for extra margin of safety in this volatile period.

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There is a lot of interest on BBSFF now, once a darling of yield lovers. Here is a review from The Edge this week.

BBSFF - This much-neglected fund came to life last month in the most unwelcome manner - a price collapse. Much of htis has to do with its parent's business model and sentiment surrounding listed infrastructure funds in Australia, which are all in decline. BBSFF has been tending down ever since the subprime crisis broke last year. How much further can prices fall or have they bottomed? There is no easy answer. Going by the charts, it doesn't look like the decline is over. As for target, it's difficult to say. Prices have fallen from the IPO prise of $1.06 to 26.5 cents, so it's fair to assume the largest decline is over.

Is it? Let's read on.....

The comment from The Edge stop as abovementioned. As a gender reminder, we shall carefully look at what was cited as "the largest decline is over". This statement does not imply that the stock will not decline in large amount again. Good to remember: A stock that drop 90% is first drop to 80% and then half, i.e: Do not assume that it is safe to enter when it drop from $1.xx to 2x cents now, it can cut 50%of your invested capital really fast.

For those laughing at people entered at $1xx, yes, they are suffering 80% of lost right now. If you intend to bottom fish now and it happen to drop another half from current level, then you will suffer 50% lost, and the former 90%. The risk is very high. Therefore, do not enter if no reversal or bottoming signal.

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